Researchers at the University of Liverpool, UK, have shown that the number of novel coronaviruses that can be bred in wild and domestic animals is currently significantly reduced.
The pipeline learning team used a machine to work out the probability of different viruses coming together in the same animal (repeat host) to produce new strains of coronaviruses.
The researchers predicted far more associations between coronaviruses and host species than has been seen to date. They also predicted an additional 30 times the number of potential repeat hosts of coronavirus respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – the causative agent of coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19).
In addition, the team identified potentially high-risk species that they recommend for coronavirus screening.
Asian Civet Palm. Image credit: trubavin / Shutterstock
“Our findings strongly suggest that the range of potential viruses in hosts is greatly reduced, reinforcing the message that continuous surveillance is essential,” Maya wrote. Wardeh and her colleagues in the magazine Nature Communication.
Concerns about novel coronaviruses emerge in the future
After the introduction of three new respiratory coronaviruses from mammalian reservoirs into human populations over the past 20 years, one of the most important questions researchers will have is which animal species future repositories?
Seven coronaviruses are now known to be contagious, three of which can cause severe infection (SARS-CoV-1, SARS-CoV-2, and Middle East respiratory syndrome). [MERS]-CoV), while the other four usually cause milder symptoms.
Modern pathogenic coronaviruses arise through homologous replication – a process that generates a new combination of genetic material from two parent strains of the virus that co-infects individual hosts. The genetic material of the proxy virus contains strains from each parent species.
Homologous replication has previously been shown in several important viruses and is thought to underlie the exposure of both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.
“Renaming events between two corresponding partner series in shared hosting could lead to novel coronaviruses in the future,” Wardeh and the team wrote. “However, our understanding of the permitted hosts for the coronaviruses, which is essential for identifying potential hosts for these re-enactments, remains very limited. ”
What did the researchers do?
The line-learning team used a tool to predict connections between coronaviruses and their potential mammalian hosts.
The pipeline considered the genomic characteristics of 411 coronavirus rays, the ecological, phylogenetic and geospatial characteristics of 876 potential mammalian hosts, and the characteristics of the network connecting coronaviruses to the hosts seen.
What did they find?
The team predicts 11.5 times more coronavirus host associations and more than 30 times more repeat hosts of SARS-CoV-2 than has been seen to date.
In total, the pipeline predicted that there could be 4,438 unprecedented associations between 300 mammals and 204 coronaviruses. It also predicted that a total of 126 mammalian species are hosts to SARS-CoV-2.
In total, the model identified 231 mammal species that could carry ten or more of the 411 coronavirus rays.
“These hosts of many coronaviruses are sources of new types of coronavirus with a homologous reaction,” the researchers say.
The model predicted known repeat hosts
Next, the host team identified candidates who could generate new pathogenic coronavirus rays and predicted which species are, therefore, high-priority targets for surveillance.
Interestingly, the model correctly identified some hosts of significant reactivation of coronaviruses.
For example, the Asian palm civet was predicted as a potential host of 32 coronaviruses, in addition to SARS-CoV-2.
Genetic evolutionary analysis has already shown that SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to coronaviruses derived from this animal. Studies have also identified Asian palm civet as a reservoir for SARS-CoV-1, Wardeh and colleagues said.
In addition, the model identified the intermediate horse bat, which studies have previously identified as a reproducible host of SARS-CoV-2.
“The successful identification of speculative hosts for the homologous repertoire of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 contributes significantly to confidence that our model identifies the most important repeating host possible, ”Wrote the team.
What other species did the study pick up?
The pipeline also identified several species that are not yet associated with SARS-CoV-2 reuptake but have been predicted to host SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses.
The researchers say the high-priority species is the lesser Asiatic yellow bat, a group of known but insufficient coronaviruses.
The model also predicted the common hedgehog, the European rabbit, and the domestic cat as hosts of SARS-CoV-2 and several other coronaviruses.
The most obvious outcome for SARS-CoV-2 reuptake host was the domesticated pig associated with an additional 121 coronaviruses.
“The pig is a major guest of mammalian coronavirus,” the team says.
The authors recommend a focused study program
The researchers say the findings indicate that the homologous reproducibility between coronaviruses is partially reduced by the use of only observed data.
“The large numbers of hosts presented here have the potential to be hosts of multiple coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the potential for re-emergence. homologous praise and thus the production of more novel coronaviruses, ”wrote Wardeh and colleagues.
However, with the extent to which mammalian host reservoirs and the repetitive guests may be identified here, a targeted monitoring program is now possible.
Such a program could help inform prevention and mitigation strategies and provide an essential early warning system for future novel coronaviruses, the team concludes.