Researchers at Stanford University in the United States have conducted a study showing that college campuses have an extremely high incidence of 2019 coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and could re-initiate superspreading in communities neighborhood.
The team’s modeling of COVID-19 revolution dynamics across 30 campuses and their home counties revealed a high number of outbreaks on campus in the first two weeks of the class. These revolts usually spread to nearby communities.
Of the 30 institutions surveyed, 14 saw spikes from disease, with a seven-day frequency at a magnitude greater than the nationwide peaks that occurred in the first and second waves of pandemic.
Many out-of-campus control failed to control the spread of the virus and within just two weeks, 17 outbreaks had spread to diseases in home counties.
However, most habitats quickly controlled the uprising and quickly reduced the number of new diseases.
We anticipate rigorous trace-quarantine testing strategies, a flexible transition to online management, and – most importantly – compliance with local regulations essential to ensure a safe reopening environment after the winter holidays, ”wrote Ellen Kuhl and her colleagues.
A pre-printed version of the paper is available on the server medRxiv *, while the article is subject to peer review.
The question of whether it should be reopened is a matter of ongoing debate
The question of whether colleges and universities should reopen while COVID-19 pandemics is still a topic of ongoing debate and great concern.
Huge waves of disease were caught in many reopened centers and college campuses were quickly announced as the new dispersal sites.
With a term now over and a long winter break ahead, it is essential to carry out a thorough review of the fall and carefully assess the risks of reopening, the researchers said.
What did the researchers do?
The team analyzed the dynamics of COVID-19 uptake across 30 campuses and their home counties across the United States using an infectious-infectious reabsorption (SEIR) model. A method called Bayesian inference was used to estimate the number of effective reproductions (number of secondary infections due to one disease) based on the institute’s daily COVID-19 case reports during the fall of 2020.
By comparing campus outbreak features with COVID-19 case reports for the home counties, the team was able to assess whether reopening campuses was associated with outbreak in the local community.
The first two weeks of class were high risk
Of the 30 institutions surveyed, the number of infections spanned over 14 campuses within the first two weeks of the class.
The highest seven-day event per 100,000 within these centers was well over 1,000 – an order of magnitude larger than the nationwide peaks seen during the first and second waves of pandemics (70 and 150, separately).
Seven days per 100,000 events of 50 are often considered by policymakers as a threshold for high-risk counties, states or countries. The top of the 30 institutions included in the study exceeded this value by two and even three orders of magnitude.
The highest incidence (3,083) was seen for the University of Notre Dame, followed by the University of Arizona (2,700), and Clemson University (2,685).
Many institutions failed to control the out-of-campus spread of SARS-CoV-2 and within just two weeks, 17 outbreaks had spread disease in neighboring communities.
Our results are a quantitative test of the common fear in early fall that colleges could be new hotspots of COVID-19 transmission, ”the team wrote.
Successful reopening depends on control measures
However, most habitats responded well to the uprisings and were able to rapidly reduce the number of reproductions by one within two to three weeks.
For most habitats, the dynamics of the revolution remained manageable throughout the fall, with narrow spikes of less than 300 cases per day. Nearby communities have been less successful in spreading the virus.
“Our findings highlight that college campuses are at risk of initiating superstitious events, but, at the same time, they should be commended for their prompt responses to managing local events to successful, ”said Kuhl and the team.
“Successful re-opening depends on limiting the introduction of the virus during the initial weeks of the term, regular testing and rapid detection, and the general understanding of the importance of quarantine and loneliness,” they say. counseling.