The Covid-19 Image is shining in the US, but no virus has yet produced it

Many infectious disease experts in the U.S. are cautiously optimistic. Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have fallen sharply in the past few weeks as the country recovers from its deadliest attack yet, and vaccination campaigns are getting more pictures in people’s arms. Warmer weather is around the corner.

But hard progress against the coronavirus pandemic remains fragile, public health experts say. Case numbers are still high and could be high; current levels of protection are insufficient to safely issue a warning; and more dangerous changes threaten to seize the U.S. and exploit security vulnerabilities.

“Things are dangerous. Now is not the time to relax, ”said Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, on Friday. “We can’t be comfortable.”

Covid-19 cases in the U.S. have declined for the past several weeks, with the seven-day average falling 74% from the Jan. 11 peak, Dr. Walensky said Monday. Average daily hospital admissions, now 6,500 per day, have fallen by 60% and are at their lowest level since fall.

Daily reported Covid-19 cases in the US

Note: For all 50 states and DC, U.S. regions and cruises. Last updated

Source: Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering

There is no single explanation for the declines, health authorities say, but the contributor seems to have changed most behavior. People are likely to take more caution, following the holiday season and a deadly winter in which the U.S. delivered a total of 500,000 deaths from Covid-19. In addition, state and local authorities increased restrictions in response to the climbing numbers.

Epidemiologists also estimate that Covid-19 has been present in at least a quarter of the population, with the majority improving the level of immune response. That, combined with the reduced number of people who have been fully vaccinated, will reduce the number of susceptible people in the population and help reduce transmission. Vaccines appear to have reduced hospitalizations and deaths, after being distributed to residents in nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

“We are coming down from a holiday bubble, and we are emerging from a very dark and cold winter that may have kept people indoors,” said Darlene Bhavnani, an epidemiologist. infectious disease at the University of Texas at Austin. “I hope to be outdoors and without a great holiday, we will continue to see these declines. ”

Some states and counties have begun to make safety measures easier since conditions improved. Nearly a year into the pandemic, many people and communities want to get back to a more normal version of life. But public health authorities are advising caution, as another rise in cases in the spring is still on the table.

“The pressure of getting back to something more normal will be overwhelming and inevitable,” said Robert Wachter, chair of the department of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “My hope is that we just think about it, we don’t just declare an impact and open the floods. This virus is resistant, and will come back to bite us. ”

Opening mitigation measures too aggressively or early may lead to a reversal in cases – as happened last spring and summer, said Dr Bhavnani and other health authorities.

Daily and hospital confirmed cases, although down sharply since January, are at the same level as last year’s peaks, and declines have stalled over the past week. passed. Things have gone up in the last three days, compared to the previous week, and the recent move “needs to be taken very seriously,” Dr Walensky said.

The level of immunity raised through both infection and vaccination is still far from the 70% to 80% or higher required to stop transmission through population – level immunity alone.

Newer, more flexible changes make calculation difficult. The variant that came out in the UK could spread much more easily than previous versions of the virus and could become mainstream in the US in March. Variations that have taken place in South Africa have had some effect on the vaccines and treatments currently available.

“I fear that once we reach a level that feels safer for society, and as people decide to release restrictions for communities or themselves, we will see this in return. in cases, ”said Ajay Sethi, infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin -Madison. “And in this case, it will be a return in the new version that is more difficult to control. ”

States and cities have tackled the development of numbers with a mosaic of rules and regulations based on guidance from their health departments, while elected officials try to navigate the fragmented landscape that is unfolding. ever-changing. Some states, such as Iowa and North Dakota, have waived their mask orders.

The state of New York, which recently opened indoor dining in New York City and places with limited capacity, is also expected to expand nursing home visiting rules, allowing 25% theater attendance. film and expanding wedding attendance. Health officials in the state are cautiously optimistic. “So far we have provided over 3 million views, but everyone must remember that this pandemic is not over,” said Jeffrey Hammond, a spokesman at the New York State Department of Health.

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In Virginia, Democrat Gov. said. Ralph Northam Wednesday said it would remove state curfews and restrictions around the number of people allowed in outdoor gatherings, starting in March.

Lilian Peake, a state epidemiologist at the Virginia Department of Health, said vaccines offer the greatest hope for fewer diseases and return to anything that seems normal. “Our vaccines are working well and are a way forward,” said Dr Peake.

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said she would only rest after the vaccination for all residents and visitors to the city.

Arizona suffered a dramatic increase in reported coronavirus diseases in the summer of 2020, just to take over these new case numbers with even higher increases in the fall and winter. In the summer, daily confirmed cases consistently exceeded 5,000, while January case numbers consistently exceeded 10,000 per day, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In comparison, the number of daily cases this week was around 1,000.

“With so many people, I am encouraged that the number of cases is declining,” said Ms Gallego, a Democrat. “At the same time, I’m careful to identify too early. ”

Write to Brianna Abbott at [email protected] and Talal Ansari at [email protected]

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