* Graphic: Global FX rates in 2020 tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* Graphic: Sterling with trade pressure from Brexit vote tmsnrt.rs/2hwV9Hv
LONDON, Feb. 8 (Reuters) – The pound did not change much Monday, slightly down against a stronger dollar, while bullish analysts were on the lookout and the latest position data showed the long-term speculative position on British currency has gone up.
The pound has strengthened against both dollars and euros in February, boosted by higher risk appetite in global markets, optimism about the UK’s COVID-19 vaccine spread and a decline in expected negative rates.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced the results of its consultation with banks on the feasibility of implementing negative rates last week.
Banks told the BoE they would need at least six months to work out how to deal with negative rates – forcing the pound to rise as investors thwarted any expectations of the past policy. to introduce.
Negative rates are “unlikely to occur over the next 6 months due to operational risks, and the need to go negative after the 6 month period will be very low as we anticipate recovery. strong economic 2Q ”, ING FX strategies Francesco Pesole and Petr Krpata wrote in a note to clients.
“Along with the rapid vaccination, GBP is set to benefit and GBP / USD is slowly eroding higher next week,” they said, adding that they expect cable to move. attack $ 1.50 by the end of the year.
At 0845 GMT, the pound fell about 0.2% against a stronger dollar at $ 1.3716.
Against the euro, it remained unchanged at 87.72 pence per euro.
Speculators ’long net position on the pound grew more in the week to Feb. 2, according to CFTC futures data. The market has been barely bullish on the pound since early December 2020, with the UK’s relative success in vaccine distribution helping to lift sentiment.
Britain has introduced more than 12 million first doses of COVID-19 vaccines and is on track to meet a target to deliver everyone in the most vulnerable groups by mid-term. February.
South Africa stopped distribution of AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines after data showed it provided little protection from mild diseases from one variant, but Britain said the bullet stopped death and serious illness .
U.S. employment growth rebounded lower than expected in January and job losses in December were worse than initially expected, prompting the dollar to depreciate but strengthening the argument for more government funding to help by overcoming COVID-19 pandemic.
Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, edited by Ed Osmond