Researchers in the UK report that much of the potential beneficial impact of the England 2020 national lock-in on coronavirus infection 2019 (COVID-19) appears to have been weakened in many areas by increased socialization in the days up to its implementation.
They say that information released about the proposed lockout five days before its implementation caused more socialization in areas classified as Tier 1 and Tier 2 as part of a three-tier system. levels of the country.
The three-tier system was introduced on 14 Octoberth as a more subdivisional approach to the control of epilepsy. Although people living in grades 1 and 2 were less socially mixed in groups of six outdoors and to go to pubs and restaurants serving food or drink, those in tier 3 had much stricter rules. In stage 3, people were prevented from socializing indoors, in private gardens, and in most cases outdoors, with guest centers only allowed to operate as restaurants.
Now, Paul Hunter and colleagues from the University of East Anglia report that epilepsy was already in decline before it was locked up nationally in November and declined after its implementation. . However, among Stage 1 and 2 authorities, the number of infections peeled off shortly after it was reported that a lockout was likely and continued to rise for up to two weeks. after activating the lock.
The researchers say much of this high infectious rate was related to the emergence of the new, more mobile variant.
“From our analysis, it is doubtful that even a return to November locking conditions would be sufficient to control the spread of the new variable,” they write.
A pre-printed version of the paper is available on the medRxiv * server, while the article is subject to peer review.
New case number submitted by sample date for England
More about the three-tier system and national locking
On 14 October, the English government introduced a three-tier system as a sub-regional approach to the control of COVID-19 infection. In the last two days of October, it was widely announced that the government was going to implement a new national closure, and just three weeks after the introduction of the defense system (5 November) , a national lock was imposed throughout every region of England.
Moving frequency 7 days by area and associated average R values by area
When the closure came to an end on Dec. 2, divisions across the country were again put in varying degrees, though most were moved one-tier up from pre-lockout levels.
“However, the effectiveness of the immune system has been affected by the emergence of a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that appears to be much more contagious,” Hunter and colleagues wrote.
What did the researchers do?
The researchers aimed to find out what effect the national lock in November had on controlling COVID-19 infection in England.
All data on the daily numbers of new COVID-19 cases between 14 October and 8 December were downloaded from the Department of Health and Social Care COVID daily dashboard.
For each local authority (local government area), the effective generation number (R-value) for previous days was calculated by summarizing each new disease report for each day and the previous six days. This was then compared with the sum of new cases over the previous seven days.
The team also estimated the epidemiology of the new variable type identified in autumn 2020.
What did they find?
Overall, the R-value declined across all three levels in the first two weeks of the October series system. However, it began overtaking Level 1 and 2 authorities after October 20, reaching a peak on November 13.
No such increase was observed in Stage 3 authorities, which instead experienced a steady decline up to around November 25th. In phases 1 and 2, a decline was also seen up to 25 November, by which time the R-value was around 0.7 across the three tiers.
However, the R-value then began to rise again, particularly across previous Phases 1 and 2 authorities.
To further examine the rates in early November and early December, the team analyzed age-specific frequency data.
In almost all districts, the increase in early November was more pronounced among age groups 20 to 24 and 25 to 29. However, the incidence fell across these age groups after locking.
Because this increase did not occur during early lockout in Phase 3, and was more pronounced among those aged 20 to 29, there is a link to more socialization in the days before being locked out, says Hunter and the team.
What about the new version?
The researchers say that the most interesting thing is that across London, the south-east and the east of England, where frequency increased near the end of locking, a significant increase was seen among the 10 age groups. to 14 and 15 to 19.
The analysis showed that, from mid-November locking to the first week in December, the R-value declined for most viral changes, while rising sharply for the new variant.
The estimated value for London, the east of England, and the southeast regions for the novel variants was 1.3, 1.3, and 1.1, respectively, compared with 0.91, 0.92, and 0.97 for all other genres combined. .
The team concludes that, in Tiers 1 and 2, much of the beneficial impact of the national lock may have been lost due to information released about the potential implementation of the lock. causing more socialism in those areas before it even started.
“We also conclude that, as the value of R is estimated to be between 0.39 and 0.93 greater than the previous changes, any lock as tight as the one in November would not be sufficient to allow the reversing an increase in infections on its own, ”wrote Hunter and colleagues.
* Important message
medRxiv publish preliminary scientific reports that are not peer-reviewed and, therefore, should not be seen as final, guiding health-related clinical practice / behavior, or be treated as information established.