From the early days of pandemic, researchers know that people with COVID-19 can spread the disease before they develop symptoms and even if they never feel sick.
Study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association on Thursday measures just how many new cases are transferred from people without symptoms: at least 50 percent.
The echo findings estimate that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in November, when the group said people without symptoms “accounted for more than 50 percent. of movements. “
Jay Butler, deputy director for infectious diseases at the CDC and lead author of the new study, said the findings underline the importance of following public health guidelines on wearing a mask and making speed.
“There was still some controversy over the value of community mitigation – foreign faces, social distance, and hand hygiene – to limit spread,” Butler told Business Insider. At screening, symptom relief, as well as strategically designed tests on people in a particular situation, will be a great benefit. “
For the study, researchers modeled COVID-19 transmitters that could fall into three groups: hypothetical (people who had not yet received symptoms), never hypothetical, and symbolic, and symbolic .
The researchers then explained how much each group would take over COVID-19 according to the day people were most infected. At baseline, they assumed that humans would be in all infectious groups five days after exposure to the coronavirus. That’s what researchers have discovered as the moderate stimulus period – the time it takes most people to develop symptoms after being exposed.
The model initially assumed that 30 percent of people were asymptomatic, and that those 75 percent were as infectious as people who eventually showed or would show symptoms. Based on these assumptions, the results suggested that only asymptomatic people were responsible for 24 percent of infections.
But the researchers also modeled situations in which the highest incidence of infection occurred after three, four, six, and seven days, and raised and decreased the percentage of asymptomatic people in the model, as well as the rate their infection compared to other groups.
Across most of these conditions, asymptomatic and presymptomatic (asymptomatic and presymptomatic) people were found to spread at least 50 percent of new infections.
“The proportion of broadcasts remained on average above 50 percent over a wide range of core values,” Butler said, adding that the consistency of that finding was surprising.
Even in the most conservative estimate, in which peak infection occurred seven days after exposure and asymptomatic individuals accounted for 0 percent of transmission, the preexisting group still accounted for more than 25 percent of cases as a whole, depending on the model.
Butler and his coauthors warned, however, that their model tends to disregard the true percentage of COVID-19 cases led by asymptomatic people, because they measured the distribution rates if everyone moved around at random. But in reality, many restaurants and other establishments are screening for fever and other symptoms to stop symbolic people from entering. In addition, there are many people with isolated symptoms at home, which also make them less prone to COVID-19 transmission than people who feel unwell.
This article was originally published by Business Insider.
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