Never Mind Peak Oil, Global Forecaster calls the Effects of Gasoline

The forecast comes as car manufacturers have recently pivoted to boost their EV fleets, following years of industry grumbling over whether car buyers would ever accept models full of electricity. General Motors Co. said. to stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Swedish Volvo Cars has said it would be all-electric by 2030.

The world will have 60 million electric vehicles on its roads by 2026, the IEA said, up from 7.2 million in 2019. The agency will be closely monitoring EV movements as an important indicator of gasoline and crude oil demand .

The move towards electric vehicles is driven by government regulation, major incentives in developed countries and wider consumer acceptance by the technology, partly due to popular models such as those sold by Tesla. Inc.

EVs still make up a small portion of the world’s total fleet, and carmakers say they anticipate growing demand for combustion engines within gas-fired, especially in the United States. the developing world, for years to come.

The forecast comes at a time when the pandemic has eroded global fuel consumption, raising questions about whether it will change the overall world energy mix in the coming years. Power watchers have been debating for years about the era of so-called peak oils, a point where demand for crude is declining. Among the pandemic that started demand last year, some forecasters, including those of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, have said that day could already passed in the developed world.

The IEA said Wednesday it will see global crude demand recover, reaching up to 104 million barrels per day by 2026, up about 4% from 2019 levels, thanks to the developing world. Economic power centers such as China, India and other Asian countries will account for 90% of the net increase in oil demand over the next five years, the group said.

But for the first time, the group said it no longer predicts a complete kick-back in demand for gasoline – the product that underpinned the world’s thirst for crude.

“We do not believe gasoline consumption will return to 2019 levels again,” said IEA Managing Director Fatih Birol. At the same time, demand for global jet fuel will not reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024, the group said.

Amid widespread government-imposed coronavirus restrictions on travel, the IEA said daily gasoline demand fell by 2.9 million barrels in 2020, down more than 10% from the 26.6 million barrels per day burned in 2019.

The EMI said global gasoline demand will begin to return as economies reopen. But the move to EVs in richer countries is now accelerating at such a pace that there will be shortfalls that will offset expected growth from developing countries such as Indonesia, India and China.

Plug-in electric vehicles worldwide accounted for about 4.2% of new car sales last year, with sales rising 43% to 3.24 million vehicles, according to ev-volumes.com, a research agency that monitoring EV sales. In Europe, where EV sales are booming, plug-in electric vehicles accounted for 10.5% of new cars sold in the fourth quarter of 2020.

“E-potential has won the race,” Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess told reporters this week as they unveiled major new investments in car battery factories and electric power stations.

Mr Diess said battery-powered electric vehicles would make up 50% of Volkswagen’s new car sales worldwide by 2030. He said, however, conventional incinerator engines would still have control in some areas. of markets.

“We will continue to sell ICEs in some sectors longer than in others,” he said. “E-movement will occur at different speeds across the globe in line with local policies and CO2-free energy supply.”

Write to David Hodari at [email protected] and William Boston at [email protected]