Getting the elderly vaccine first for COVID-19 saves most lives

It has been argued that vaccines may not be the oldest, and therefore the most vulnerable in society, versus severe coronavirus respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as the first priority of the pre- -best strategy in terms of saving the maximum number of years of life.

A short paper by Goldstein author, Cassidy, and Wachter, recently published online in the journal Proceedings of the United States National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), mathematically demonstrating that vaccination of the first oldest, in fact, ultimately saves both the largest life and the greatest years of life.

The group obtained data on the age of COVID-19-related deaths from the U.S., Germany, and South Korea, suggesting that the risk of dying from COVID-19 increases with age, about 11% per year. But the remaining life expectancy of people declines linearly to real age. The number of years saved by vaccinating the average person at a given age was calculated based on these two data points.

The number of years saved by vaccinating a person of a certain age was seen to increase with age in a near-line fashion. For example, 40-year-old American people live around 0.005 years longer on average, and 90-year-olds live 0.05 years longer. The vaccine of 75-year-olds was expected to save 0.025 years of life, half as much as the vaccine of 90-year-olds. In terms of the number of lives saved, the difference is particularly worse, where the distribution of vaccines to 90-year-olds saves three times as many lives as those to 80-year-olds. and eighty times more than when distributed to 50-year-olds.

Since only these basic statistical aspects were considered in the mathematical model: risk of death from COVID-19 and years remaining at a certain age, these conclusions should be applied in general. The group notes that vaccination would inevitably save the youngest with comorbidities or serious health conditions the years of life in which they can be successfully vaccinated. This model also assumes, firstly, that vaccines provide good and lasting immunity, and second, that vaccine efficacy is stable with age. At this stage, the available vaccines appear to be quite effective among all ages, and short-term immunity, at least, is relatively certain after two doses.

The authors support the priority cited by the World Health Organization, which has been criticized for its decision to consult the oldest vaccine first. Giving the COVID-19 vaccine to those most at risk of death is the best strategy in terms of both lives saved and years of whole lives saved.