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Eli Lilly’s headquarters in Indianapolis
Jonathan Weiss / Bruadar
When
Eli Lilly
they presented the results of a small study on donanemab therapy Alzheimer’s disease last weekend, investors were hoping for a miracle.
It did not materialize, and Lilly shares (ticker: LLY), which had risen 11.7% as the company forecast the survey back in January, slipped 11.6% by the end of trading on Thursday .
These trends in stock do not tell the true story of donanemab. The data provided by Lilly last Saturday were positive for the development of Alzheimer’s drugs in general, and for donanemab in particular, even though it did not meet the high expectations of investors.
“It’s updating the data,” said Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald. “You could read it the way you want to read it, and I think that’s why it’s hard for people to make a decision.”
The results of the Phase 2 study do not significantly alter the developmental landscape of Alzheimer’s disease drugs. But they support the view that the companies working on the problem, including Lilly,
Roche Holding
(RHHBY), and
Biogen
(BIIB), barking up the right tree.
“This is one data set, okay, but I think it’s very encouraging,” said Ronny Gal, an analyst at Bernstein. “That’s my two cents [in] three to five years … we get there. ”
Barron’s I wrote about the major challenges of treating Alzheimer ‘s disease with an aging population and the hopes of a drug fight in a cover story in early February, “The Other Pandemic: What what to do about Alzheimer’s Crisis. ”
Donanemab may not be approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration according to the latest data alone, but analysts say Lilly appears to have a real drug in her hands. Chen has maintained its fat level on the stock, with a price target of $ 245, 33.2% higher than the recent $ 183.93 quota.
Moreover, the results offer further confirmation of the scientific theory behind most of the Alzheimer’s disease treatments being developed. Drug companies have been very successful in developing drugs to treat Alzheimer’s disease, with no new treatment approved in 18 years, leading to concerns that researchers are wrong about how Alzheimer’s is work, and how they deal with it.
The FDA is now considering the issue in the case of Biogen Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab. The group’s own advisory panel said there was insufficient evidence on the drug’s effectiveness, and views on whether to adopt it are still mixed.
If the scientific theory behind both aducanumab and donanemab, known as the amyloid hypothesis, were to be proven, it could enhance the prospects of aducanumab.
Lilly’s chief scientific officer, Dr. Daniel Skovronsky, reported Barron’s that Lilly’s study was the best clinical evidence that still supported the amyloid hypothesis. “When you clean amyloid plaque deeply and quickly, we slow down the progression of pathology, and we slow down mental decline,” Skovronsky said. “That’s exactly what the amyloid hypothesis has said.”
Experts who looked at the data in the days since have raised questions about some of the details in Skovronsky’s statement, noting that the mental retardation seen in the study was not statistically significant with all steps, and that did not affect tau levels, another biomarker linked to Alzheimer’s, was seen only in certain brain regions.
However, Chen said the study could boost confidence in amyloid hypothesis. “If you believe in beta amyloid, or if you believe there is a treatment for Alzheimer’s out there … now you have more evidence than you did before,” Chen said.
That may not be enough to push the FDA to approve aducanumab before the June deadline. Gal noted that Lilly ‘s study has shown the importance of targeting these drugs to very narrow sections of Alzheimer’ s patients, something Biogen did not do.
“I think in the long run, I believe it’s positive; it increases the chances of Biogen having a drug, ”says Gal. “Does it increase the chances of getting approval without further testing? Well, I don’t think so. ”
Beyond aducanumab and donanemab, Roche is moving on with gantenerumab, a similar drug. Nearby are other potential Alzheimer’s treatments.
For investors, the key is to keep a cool head. “Investors have always responded very frenetically to Alzheimer’s data because the ultimate goal is so great; it’s just such a big crowd, ”said Marc Goodman, an analyst at SVB Leerink. “I wonder [the market] it was a great joy at first, and on Monday it brought back some of that excitement. ”
Write to Josh Nathan-Kazis at [email protected]