Fewer experts than the chief economist of the European Central Bank say the oar of COVID-19 lockout statements, including Germany, will not stop the eurozone economy.
“It is important to confirm that when we made our forecasts a week or two ago we were allowed to make some expansion in the second quarter,” Philip Lane, ECB chief economist, said in an interview with CNBC. “So it is no surprise now that we are seeing the decisions of locking measures that have been extended into April. ”
That forecast calls for 4% growth in 2021, after a 6.6% decline in 2020. The median forecast is for 4.3% growth, according to FactSet’s compilation of 51 estimates.
Lane indicated that the European Commission expects an acceleration in COVID-19 vaccination in the second quarter. “It is a rivalry between advances and vaccines and other medical advances against the near-term challenge of trying to get this virus under control,” Lane said.
Lane’s comments came as Germany extended its lockout measures another month in what will effectively close public life over Easter. The UK extended a ban on foreign travel until July, allowing a fine of £ 5,000 ($ 6,890) for a move that was not required for work or family reasons.
See also: European stocks slip as Germany extends COVID-19 lockout to mid-April
In financial markets, prices are only minimal as the recovery will not be as strong as hoped. Stoxx Europe 600 SXTP travel and leisure index,
– with companies including InterContinental IHG Hotels,
and Lufthansa LHA,
– doubled from the low levels in March 2020, although it is now down 3% from the highs.
The euro EURUSD,
trading below $ 1.19, and the yield on the German 10-year bundle TMBMKDE-10Y bundle,
has moved deeper into negative territory after rising as high as -0.23% earlier in the month.