China is launching a year-long upgrade from Covid-19 Doldrums

But the 60.6% jump in the January-February period from a year earlier, released Sunday by the General Administration of Customs in Beijing, far outweighed the 40% rise expected by economists. study by the Wall Street Journal. China typically releases data for the first two months of the year together to eliminate distortions from the New Year’s holidays, which may fall in January or February.

This year, in February alone, shipments exceeded 154.9% from a year earlier, the highest monthly increase for Chinese exports in year-over-year terms, although one was made possible only by the trade campaign that was so historic in February last year.

China’s imports also rose 22.2% in the first two months of the year compared to last year, accelerating from a 6.5% year-over-year increase and giving a comfortable surge to the 15% growth expected by economists expectation.

Taken together, China’s January-February trade surplus widened from December to $ 103.25 billion, well above economists ’forecast of $ 57.7 billion.

This low underlying impact is expected to give China’s other key economic data points a boost for the first quarter of the year, which will typically be followed in year-over-year terms.

These comparisons will become more difficult in the coming months. After a sharp drop in trade in the first two months of 2020, the region recovered in the spring, and for most of the second half of the year China’s machinery manufacturing and export put out a lot medical devices and home-made electronic products to meet demand from the rest of the world for pandemics.

China’s stable export sector was a key pillar of the overall recovery in the world’s second-largest economy, which expanded 2.3% last year, making it the only major economy to post growth in 2020.

Even after the elimination of statistical distances for the first two months of 2021, trade numbers showed strong overseas demand as stimulated by fiscal stimulus measures in the U.S. and the Department. Europe spending.

On the supply side, meanwhile, official pandemic control measures encouraging Chinese workers to stay at their workplaces rather than returning home for the Lunar New Year meant that exports are able to better meet demand than in previous years, China ‘s customs bureau said Sunday.

Eliminating comparisons with last year’s Covid-19 impact figures altogether, the customs bureau said Sunday that China’s imports and exports were to be a “start-up” for 2021, noting that January and February trade figures are around 20% higher than the same period in 2018 and 2019, before the original revolution.

Despite the optimism signaled by Sunday’s trade data, Chinese policymakers have been cautious about the outlook for demand from abroad, taking into account the uncertainties surrounding vaccines and virus changes. In its annual report on the government’s work, published on Friday, Chinese leaders set a relatively small goal of keeping exports and imports at “stable levels.”

For the economy as a whole this year, policymakers in China have set a formal target for gross domestic product to rise 6% or more, a median target that is well below most projections. of economists for growth of 8% or more. Economists say this achievable target gives Beijing more room to recover from debt and address other long-term structural challenges that could hinder growth.

Part of the long-term shift by Chinese policymakers is to steer the economy away from dependence on external demand, partly due to increased geopolitical pressures. In response, Beijing has pledged to increase domestic demand and take steps to increase its citizens’ spending.

—Grace Zhu contributed to this article.

Write to Jonathan Cheng at [email protected]