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Inside Xpeng P7 EV outside New York stock exchange in New York
Jeenah Moon / Bloomberg
Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer
XPeng
reporting earnings Monday before the market opens for trading. Bullish investors are hoping results will stop the recent slippage.
Here’s what to expect on Monday morning, along with some recent history.
XPeng
(ticker: XPEV) shares are down more than 30% over the past few weeks and over 60% from their 52-week high. The fall has been both a surprise and a cause.
Two things are to blame. First, consecutive February deliveries have declined since January. That worried investors who are looking to grow. But February is a Lunar New Year’s holiday February, along with peers
NIO
(NIO) and
Li Auto
(LI), said sales impact.
The second reason is inflation. Investors are worried about inflation, and as bond yields rise in value, high-growth stocks are hurting more than slow-growing old companies. High growth companies will generate most of their cash flow, and the potential benefits, far into the future. Waiting becomes more difficult when investors can make more interest today from higher yielding funds. In addition, funding all of that growth will be a bit more expensive as bond yields rise.
XPeng deserves as a company with huge value growth. Shares traded for about 9.5 hours of 2021 estimates
Russell 1000 growth index,
for comparison, trades for less than 5 times estimated 2021 sales. In addition, analysts expect XPeng sales to grow nearly 150% in 2021.
Analysts also expect XPeng to report a 14 percent share loss of about $ 418 million in sales. That’s up from the third quarter, when XPeng reported a 16 percent loss from about $ 288 million in sales. Shares rallied 33% the day the company reported numbers back in November.
Year-over-year comparisons are not easy as XPeng sold shares to the public in an IPO last summer.
XPeng is the last of the three U.S.-registered Chinese EV manufacturers to report earnings. Both NIO and
Li Auto
beat analyst sales expectations and their own company management. It wasn’t enough for sections though. NIO stocks fell nearly 13% after reporting numbers about a week ago. Li shares fell nearly 10% after the company reported fourth-quarter numbers.
Investors are not looking for the same setup for XPeng. Its shares are down about 21% since Li reported earnings.
For the stock to break out of its fungus, investors will want to hear that growth will continue. That means EV sales in China have recovered after the New Year holidays. It also means that XPeng needs to show investors that the lack of an automated microchip won’t hurt productivity.
The chip shortage has come up on several employment conference calls including NIO and
General Motors (GM).
GM says the deficit is a billion-dollar profit margin in 2021. The NIO says the deficit prevents the company from ramping up to full production. Both companies hope the shortage will be a thing of the past in the second half of 2021.
Investors will also want to hear about new battery options offered by XPeng, which recently announced it would replace cells with lithium-iron-phosphate batteries. They are a bit cheaper and have less range. But not everyone needs a 200 or 300 mile range for all costs and would prefer the lowest price. That’s what XPeng promises at least.
XPeng stock is down about 35% year to date, worse than the comparative changes of the
S&P 500
and
Dow Jones business average.
Despite the recent downturn, analysts remain bullish. Almost 70% of analysts cover the company’s Buy rate shares. The average Buy ratio for stocks in the Dow is around 57%.