Why surging oil and copper prices are ‘completely separated from reality’, Commerzbank says

The GameStop GME,
-7.21%
frenzy may have cooled but attention will turn to the fall later Thursday as lawmakers are ready to grind the key players.

A number of key actors are expected to protest against the House Financial Services Committee at noon following their backlash against Robinhood’s online trading platform and other brokers ’decisions to curb trading in it. their meme stocks, like that videogames seller, last month.

The focus of market sales, and rising Treasury yields, remains focused, confirming optimism about the recovery of COVID-19 but also raising concerns that inflation could rise. The result of TMUBMUSD10Y 10-year Financial Criterion,
1,296%
jumped 38 basis points this year. Yield fell early Thursday ahead of U.S. jobless claims data later in the day.

BRN00 oil prices,
+ 0.54%
continued higher, after US prices CL.1,
+ 0.61%
it settled above $ 60 Wednesday as freezing conditions kept refineries in Texas closed and disrupted production.

Anns ar call of the day, Commerzbank analysts said commodities were “completely detached from reality,” noting that oil prices in particular were driven by news that would typically drive them lower. The recent rise in metal prices was also starting to look “too much,” they said.

“There is nothing likely to be possible to halt a rise in oil prices right now,” said energy analyst Carsten Fritsch, noting that Brent has benefited in 14 of the 15 trading days. finally, climbing around $ 10 in three weeks. A number of developments, he said, are noted, including reports that higher prices have led the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to gradually consider raising oil supplies since April , and Saudi Arabia is unlikely to extend its voluntary production cuts beyond that. end of March.

“This selective outlook is an indication of oversupply markets,” Fritsch said. “Oil prices should normally have been dealt with by a sharp fall as this could see up to 1.5 million more barrels of crude oil on the market each day in April,” he said.

This separation from reality is also present when it comes to HG00 copper,
+ 2.29%,
which reached its highest level since April 2012 on Thursday, as well as nickel and aluminum which have also achieved high levels, said Commerzbank analysts – largely hoping for a major global recovery. Analysts noted that Chinese traders have returned to the markets after a week-long holiday, driving prices higher.

However, precious metals and business analyst Daniel Briesemann said no new data was the basis for the “apparent rise” in metal prices in recent weeks. “In our view, metal prices are currently largely driven by profitability, and the rise is starting to look overwhelming. From a technical point of view, copper and aluminum are currently being replaced, as measured by a relative strength index, ”he said in a note.

GC00 gold,
+ 0.61%,
which fell below the key $ 1,800 ounce rate earlier in the week amid rising bond yields and dollar strength, also separated from reality but in a different way, Fritsch said.

The tweet

Is DoubleLine Capital billionaire “Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach to become a BTCUSD bitcoin,
-1.12%
fan?

The markets

US stock futures YM00,
-0.40%

ES00,
-0.45%

NQ00,
-0.79%
marked lower ahead of opening, following Dow Jones industrial average DJIA,
+ 0.29%
closed at peak Wednesday. European stocks were lower in early trading as investors dug into mixed corporate earnings. Technology stocks led Asian markets lower overnight.

The buzzard

Tilray TLRY,
-9.01%
reduced losses and boosted revenue in the last three months of 2020, as they prepare to join Canadian marijuana subsidiary Aphria APHA,
-5.15%.
Shares in Tilray jumped more than 8% in pre-sale trading.

Walmart WMT,
+ 1.06%
announced a new $ 20 billion stock purchase plan as the seller lost forecast earnings.

Google GOOG,
+ 0.30%
has struck contracts in Australia to pay for journalism, while Facebook FB,
-0.15%
has vowed to ban news sharing while Australian lawmakers consider putting digital giants involved in pay agreements.

Mining stock made gains Thursday as copper futures rallied, hitting their highest level since April 2012. Rio Tinto RIO,
+ 1.65%,
Antofagasta ANTO,
+ 0.85%,
and BHP BHP,
+ 1.29%
among the largest risers.

Apple AAPL,
-1.76%
stocks fell to a one-month low on Wednesday, after the tech giant’s two biggest shareholders said they had cut their sticks.

Airbus AIR,
-2.56%
stocks fell more than 3%, as the 2021 manufacturer’s guide disappointed investors. The company said it does not plan to deliver more aircraft in 2021 than the 566 it delivered in 2020.

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