Where did the voices go? Comparison between election campaigns

Following the publication of the truthful results of the elections to the 24th Knesset, the Smith Institute publishes a special survey, conducted on Election Day, in which 1,740 voters were interviewed, as a representative sample of the adult Jewish population who voted on Election Day. (Sample Error 2.4)

The survey was conducted in a combination of telephone interviews and an online panel and its purpose was to examine how the Israeli public changed its vote compared to the previous elections held in March 2020.

Where did the Likud votes go?

According to the data, only about 74.5% of Likud voters in the March 20 elections voted for the Likud again, about 1,007,000 votes equivalent to 28 seats.

7.2% of Likud voters on March 20 passed and voted for a new hope led by Saar – about 97,000 votes equivalent to about 2.7 seats

6.6% of Likud voters on March 20 passed and voted to the right led by Bennett about 89,000 votes equivalent to about 2.4 seats. On the other hand, a little more than 20,000 who voted for the right in the last election voted for the Likud this time, so in practice the Likud “lost” about 2 seats to the right.

4.5% of Likud voters in March 20 went to vote for “religious Zionism” led by Smutritz, about 61,000 votes equivalent to 1.7 seats.

The Likud lost another 50,000 votes to blue-and-white and there is a future, and on the other hand the Likud and the “pro Netanyahu” camp received a mandate in the Arab sector.

Likud headquarters on election night (Photo: Avraham Blochsrugim)

Pointers to the right

This time the party competed separately from “Religious Zionism” led by Smutrich, of which it was a year ago. 51% of those who voted for the party a year ago voted for it again today, led by Bennett, equivalent to 123,000 votes, equivalent to 3.3 seats.

About a third passed and voted for “religious Zionism” 80,000 votes (equivalent to 2.2 seats). The data also show that “religious Zionism” received support from “Jewish power” voters in the last election (the number of cases is small) and among the ultra-Orthodox sector, a total of over 60,000 votes, equivalent to 1.5 seats.

How did blue-and-white voters split up?

The renewed party led by Gantz disbanded and ran separately from Yesh Atid led by Lapid. Well, 44.6% of the “blue and white” voters in the previous election voted for Lapid this time, about 543,000 votes equivalent to almost 15 seats (they currently constitute 83% of the voters have a future today).

Another interesting finding is that 19.4% of “blue” and white “voters” a year ago voted for Bnei Gantz (excluding Yair Lapid) about 236,500 votes equivalent to 6.4 seats (they constitute about 80% of his supporters today), ie almost 1 in 5 who voted A year ago, Gantz and Lapid voted only for Gantz this time.

11.1% of the “blue and white” voters in March 20 passed and voted for Gideon Saar – 134,200 votes and an equivalent of 3.7 seats per Saar. About 36,000 votes went from a white brush to “Yisrael Beiteinu” equivalent to a mandate. About 24,000 votes went from “blue and white” to the right led by Bennett equivalent to two-thirds of the seats.

Part of the success of the Labor Party stems from the fact that about 112,000 “blue and white” voters in the last election passed and this time voted for the Labor Party, equivalent to about 3 seats (constituting about 42% of the Labor Party voters). About 42,000 votes went from “blue and white” to the Likud – a little more than a mandate.

What happened in the ultra-Orthodox parties?

Although the ultra-Orthodox parties mainly retained their power in terms of seats, they experienced a decrease in the number of voters when 86% of Shas voters voted for it again and about 82% of Torah Judaism voters voted for their party again.

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