Tehran, Iran – Despite consideration of COVID-19, Qatar’s ruling emir and de facto governor of Saudi Arabia intervened when the historic city of Al-Ula arrived on Tuesday for a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit.
Shortly afterwards, their two countries, as well as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait – which together form the GCC – signed a “loyalty and stability” treaty at their annual summit.
With Egypt also signing a settlement agreement with Qatar, a three-and-a-half-year-old peninsula Arab state has come to an end.
Iran was keeping a close eye. The blockade, after all, was partly hampered by the fact that Qatar and Iran were developing closer ties.
The long list of requests to lift the blockade – which have never been granted – included provisions that said Qatar must close diplomatic posts in Iran, removing members of a Guard Group Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary, and only trade and trade with Iran according to United State Sanctions.
The GCC itself, established in 1981 shortly after the 1979 Iranian revolution, was set up in part to counter Iran’s and Saddam Hussein’s influence in Iraq.
While GCC leaders tried to reduce freezes at their conference on Jan. 5, it is more difficult to repair deeper movements within the organization.
“It is just the fact that this barrier was brought to the attention of the great amount of conflict within the GCC and confirmed that the GCC was never a union of six states, and will never be one , “said Mehran Haghirian, regional affairs analyst.
“If the GCC survives, if it survives, it will not and cannot be more than a regional deliberative body without any meaningful authority,” he told Al Jazeera.
Iran and Qatar
Iran’s relations with Qatar were growing before the blockade, but the two countries grew much closer as other Arab states shook Qatar.
The two countries promoted political and diplomatic ties, Iran’s air space became a critical air corridor for Qatar Airways with the state, and maritime corridors boosted trade.
One year ago, days after Iran accidentally fired a Ukrainian Airlines flight killing all 176 aboard amid tensions with the US, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani traveled from Qatar to Tehran and stood alongside Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in a show of unity.
The emir of Qatar, left, traveled to Tehran to meet Rouhani about a year ago [Reuters]
At the end of March, when Iran had already been the hardest hit country with the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East, Qatar Airways assisted Iran from the United Nations Children’s Fund free.
“Bilateral relations between Iran and Qatar can be expected to continue to grow at the current pace even after the lifting of the embargo,” Haghirian said.
Qatar has also sought to mediate between Iran and the US, a role played by Oman ten years ago.
Recently, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani delivered messages between Iran and the US in late December as the first anniversary of Iran’s general assassination of Qassem Soleimani by the US.
The region continues to deal with what fell from Donald Trump’s decision in May 2018 to abandon the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers and impose strict sanctions on Tehran.
Nuclear treaty and regional competitions
Iran ‘s nuclear deal and its regional proxies and missiles program have long been issues that have sparked a long – standing conflict with other GCC members, notably Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
GCC states are used to exploiting Iran’s tensions with the U.S. and will therefore oppose any developments that reduce tensions, according to Mehran Kamrava, head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the Arab Center for Research and Policy.
“Like the same lines, none of the GCC actors, even those who seem to be friendly with Ioran, are happy about the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] and he would like to see fundamental changes made to it, ”he told Al Jazeera using the formal name of the nuclear treaty.
The landmark agreement, signed by the P5 + 1 – the US, France, the United Kingdom, China, Russia and Germany – gave priority to blocking Iran’s nuclear program over the growing influence in the region and the locally produced missiles.
Iran says its regional presence is an invitation and a key pillar of its blockbuster strategy in conjunction with the missiles in an area where most states have welcomed the presence US military.
U.S. President Joe Biden will enter the White House on Jan. 20 on promises of a renewed nuclear deal, but also with signs that he wants Iran to negotiate the regional impact and the his missiles – something Iran is reluctantly denying.
“Iran has long believed that the US is the real player of power in the region, and that the GCC is not an independent actor by itself,” Kamrava said.
“Ultimately, the rationale behind the nature of Iran’s regional activities and initiatives is to change U.S. behavior.”
Iran’s rivals within the group, however, want to play a part in shaping the country’s future.
The Gulf states have recently called for a party in any future talks towards a new nuclear deal with Iran.
Iran, for its part, has proposed Hormuz Peace Endeavor or HOPE, to start inclusive, region-wide communications and has called on Arab states to stop “buying security” from the US.
The campaign, which sees cooperation on energy security and arms control among other things, has so far been unsuccessful as Iran and its regional rivals continue to crack down on key issues.
“The only way forward is to share these issues and allow the JCPOA to fully re-establish and, jointly, prepare the necessary platform for inclusive regional communications. readmission, “Haghirian said.
“It can be argued that any solution to the GCC crisis could pave the way for inclusive communication between Iran and the GCC.”