What history tells us is happening to the S&P 500 after a strong year-end rally, strategy says

U.S. stocks are expected to start the new year in positive fashion, after ending volatile 2020 at a new high.

Investors seem to be once again moving away from the worsening COVID-19 picture, instead focusing on worldwide vaccine distribution. Hospitals in the U.S. reached a record high of 125,544 on Sunday, according to the COVID-19 tracking project, while the UK has now registered 50,000 new cases for six consecutive days, with stricter restrictions on the to name.

However, the UK began removing the vaccine from drug company AstraZeneca and Oxford University on Monday, encouraging sentiment. The FTSE 100 UKX,
+ 2.54%
lead the way, rising 2.5% as GC00 higher metal prices,
+ 2.31%

HG00,
+ 2.22%

SI00,
+ 3.89%
he helped the mining department.

Following a rally in late 2020, with the highest levels for the Dow and S&P 500, the top three U.S. stock indices were set to reap gains on the first trading day of the new year.

Anns ar call of the day, LPL Financial market chief strategist Ryan Detrick said the bulls could have “bulls to laugh” in 2021 at the strong end of the year in 2020.

The S&P 500 SPX,
+ 0.64%
rose more than 14% in November and December, ending a turbulent year at a new full-time high of 3,756.07 – gaining 16.3% in 2020. Detrick said a 10% or more gain in the last two months of the year have led to a higher S&P 500 next year every time since World War II. “Of course, January was higher every time too, so maybe this strong rally is an idea for higher inbound prices [2021]. ”

On the previous five times the index has risen by more than 10% in November and December – 1954, 1962, 1970, 1985 and 1998 – the S&P 500 has gained an average of over 18%. next year. The index also climbed in all five Januarys, rising 3% on average.

The table below shows what a typical year will look like after a 10% or more November / December rally. “Again, the playbook is historically a strong return,” Detrick said.

Source: LPL Research, FactSet

The markets

US stock futures YM00,
+ 0.49%

ES00,
+ 0.45%

NQ00,
+ 0.42%
celebrated higher early Monday, with Dow Jones industrial average Dow Jones,
+ 0.65%
set for a 150-point gain at the opening. European stocks began the year on the front leg, spread by the spread of vaccines across the continent. Asian markets also rose to start the new year amid global optimism. DXY US dollar index,
-0.50%
slipped 0.3% to 89.51 – the lowest level since April 2018.

The buzzard

Democratic lawmakers on Sunday called for swift and heavy action to be taken against President Donald Trump, after he was heard in an audiotape urging Georgia’s Republican secretary of state “more find votes to reverse his state election loss.

The running elections for the two U.S. Senate seats in Georgia take place Tuesday, which will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate.

Teledyne Technologies TDY business conglomerate,
+ 0.23%
said it has agreed to buy Flir Systems FLIR thermal imaging camera supplier,
+ 0.05%
in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $ 8 billion.

Shares of UK gambling company Entain ENT,
+ 28.72%,
Former GVC Holdings, surrendered 26% on Monday, after rejecting an offer of 1,383 pence per share from MGM Resorts MGM,
+ 1.03%
that valued the company at £ 8.09 billion ($ 11.06 billion).

Bitcoin BTCUSD,
-7.79%
rose to a high of $ 34,000 over the weekend, before entering 11% early Monday to $ 29,800.

A UK judge ruled Monday that Julian Assange, founder and publisher of WikiLeaks, should not be extradited to the US

Health care insurer Centene Corp. CNC,
+ 1.88%
said Monday that they have approved Magellan Health Inc. Get MGLN,
+ 0.58%
for $ 95 installment, in a contract with an enterprise value of $ 2.2 billion.

Carl Icahn has sold over half of its interest in Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLF,
+ 0.54%
and relinquishes his seats on board the nutritional products company, taking a step back from a long-term investment that he strongly defended against an attack from rival venture investor William Ackman.

Randomly read

South Korea’s population is falling for the first time in its history.

Swan was rescued after hours stuck on a frozen lake.

Need to Know starts early and updates until the opening bell, but sign up here to have it delivered once to your inbox. The email draft will be sent out at around 7:30 am East.

Want more for the day ahead? Sign up for The Barron’s Daily, a morning briefing for investors, including a special statement from Barron and MarketWatch writers.

.Source