Another record set for stocks looks like a high order for Tuesday, with futures hovering lower after stimulus expectations and oil prices send rations climbing to the start of the week sa.
While the trend has slowed slightly, this largely volatile market does not allow many to stand in the way of new heights. So, stop updating?
As for what could be the stock market derailment, our call of the day from global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite and a team at Credit Suisse, offering a short list of red and yellow flags.
“We have been obese behind a supportive, high ERP policy [equity risk premium], the beginning of a bond-for-equality switch and too much liquidity, while tactical signals are not yet sending a sell signal, ”the strategies say.
For example, they are not too concerned about “market exile” at the moment, as they call sales flows and there is little systemic risk or selling signals from other signals.
In relation to their concerns:
-
Depressing growth in Europe – medium and rising risk. The slow rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and furlough plans and a fiscal policy that does not look as generous as the first time around are a cause for concern. Unlike the US, banks in Europe are currently making the corporate loan and bankruptcy is being taken through moratoria. “We see this as a European problem, not a global problem, with European GDP [gross domestic product] be c.16% of global GDP – although a stronger USD could be the result, ”said the team.
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Less dovish Federal Reserve – high risk in second half 2021. That is among the potential for stronger growth in the US amid easing fiscal policy, pent-up pandemic demand and economic reopening. “If this happens at a time when inflation rises to 2.5%, wage growth is higher than expected and there are concerns about asset bubbles, the Fed could be so saddened,” said Garthwaite and the team. . Also look for TMUBMUSD10Y 10-year Finance product,
1.155%
above 1.7% or sharply rising TIPS yields (inflation-protected securities), they say. -
China slowdown – moderate to low risk. Recent policy tightening is nothing to work out too much, but China’s current account could decline further as the global economy reopens. Monitor housing market indicators, some of which indicate slow growth. If that happens, “too much leverage would begin to emerge,” said Credit Suisse.
Elsewhere: “We see that vaccines do not work against low-risk mutations, especially as changes can be introduced in 3-6 months. Other low-risk events include fiscal stance in the U.S. Senate and policy errors (with the exception of UK fiscal policy and French disinfection, which we see as a higher risk), ” the team says.
Read: Stock market is coming out 2009-10 – which means a pullback could be close, analysts warn
The markets
ES00 stock futures,
YM00,
NQ00,
to a lesser extent, with European equivalents of SXXP,
in the red. Asian markets climbed after a Wall Street recording session. Ola Brent BRNJ21,
pushing out new highs above $ 61 a barrel.
Bitcoin BTCUSD,
just kept climbing, knocking over $ 48,000 at one point, after electric car maker Tesla TSLA,
indicated a $ 1.5 billion investment in the cryptocurrency and indicated that it will accept bitcoin as future payments.
The tweet
At the same time, Tesla seems to have been less generous with employee retirement plans.
The buzzard
Canadian Cannabis Canopy CGC Company,
they reported a broader-than-expected loss but revenue estimates and shares are rising. DuPont DD materials and chemicals giant,
statement of projected profit and sale. Twitter TWTR social media messaging service,
(see preview) and Cisco CSCO conglomerate technology,
statement after closure.
Democrats on Monday unveiled their plan to raise more incentive money for families, raising the current $ 1,000 child tax credit for a year up to $ 3,000 and slightly higher for families with smaller children.
The parents of a Robinhood trader who died by suicide while having a huge negative balance are suing the online broker for wrongful death.
Small business confidence index shows optimism has been at an all-time low since the outbreak began last spring. Work openings are also ahead.
The World Health Organization says COVID-19 may have jumped from animal to human, and not from a Chinese laboratory.
Former President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial will begin Tuesday.
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