Significant hurdles, including a dispute between Hamas and Fatah, are threatening to postpone the vote, the first since 2006.
As well as political breakdowns, split between three regions, and distrust of their institutions, many Palestinians are skeptical that their first national elections in 15 years will change – or even happen at all.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said on Friday that parliamentary and primary elections would be held later this year in a long-running split effort. PA’s main rival, Hamas, welcomed the move.
The news is widely seen as a move aimed at bringing joy to US President Joe Biden, with whom the Palestinians want to re-establish friendship after reaching a low under Donald Trump.
But a December poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy Research and Survey found that 52 percent of Palestinians believe elections held under the current conditions would not be fair and free.
If Hamas won, 76 percent said Fatah – the party led by Abbas – would not accept the outcome and 58 percent thought Hamas would reject Fatah’s victory.
“We have taken an important step but we still have a long way to go,” said Hani al-Masri, a former Western Bank political analyst. “There are still major hurdles and without overcoming those hurdles all the work will fail.”
Palestinian observers have said that these obstacles include dissent within Hamas and Fatah – far the main shadow in the shadow of the Palestinian Freedom Group.
It is unclear what mechanism would have been put in place to ensure free choice, whether international spectators would participate and whether Abbas, aged 85 and in ill health, would ‘run.
It seems that the United States, Israel, and the European Union would refuse to deal with any Palestinian government that included Hamas, which the West has called a “terrorist group”.
The European Union, however, welcomed the election news.
“The EU is ready to engage with relevant actors to support the selection process. The EU also calls on the Israeli authorities to help hold elections throughout the Palestinian region, “the EU spokesman for foreign affairs and security policy said in a statement.
The United Nations was also ready to support efforts for Palestinians to be able to exercise their democratic rights, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ said, saying it would be “an urgent step towards Palestinian unity ”.
Power struggle
Israeli officials did not immediately comment and it was unclear whether Israel would allow election activity to take place in East Jerusalem, as it had done before. Elections are planned there, as well as the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
“We have other options and the important thing is that people from Jerusalem can take part in the election,” Hanna Nasir, chair of the Palestinian Central Select Committee, said on Saturday.
The last parliamentary ballot in 2006 ended with a landslide victory by Hamas in its all-time national elections, creating unrest with Fatah that escalated into a civil war when Hamas took control of Gaza the following year.
Gaza is now a stronghold of Hamas, while the Abbas power plant in the West Bank is owned by Israel.
Both groups failed to achieve a permanent reorganization, and their previous commitments to hold elections were not fulfilled. Rights groups have been accused of dismissing a political protest.
Abbas said the parliamentary election will be held on May 22 and the main vote on July 31. He won in 2005 but his term was only for four years.
Many ordinary Palestinians are skeptical.
“They get a thousand reasons for dismissing it; Israel, against, power-sharing, anything. I have no hope, ”said one Gaza man, who asked not to be named because he was breaking the coronavirus lock.
Zuheir al-Khatib, a 57-year-old doctor from Bethlehem, was more optimistic.
“This is a good 100 percent decision, deserved for more than 15 years, if there is no more, we have a right to start a state and so we should have democracy,” he said. e.