UK variable doubling every 10 days and potentially mainstream US by March, Study Finds

Topline

The UK-origin coronavirus variant is spreading rapidly across the U.S., according to the findings of a new study made public Sunday, which supports the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s forecast (CDC) that the more infectious pressure could be greater in the U.S. by the end of March, possibly driving too many cases and deaths.

Key facts

The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed but published for the medRxiv medical site, looked at half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes to rule out the spread of the UK, called B.1.1.7.

The team of researchers estimated that this variable was about 30% to 40% more contagious than common variables, finding that its frequency among advanced cases ranged from less than half of 1% of cases last month to 3.6% by the end of January.

The proportion of new coronavirus cases nationwide to which the UK variant is linked doubles every 9.8 days, with the timeline even shorter in Florida where the frequency doubles every 9.1 days and where the study found the greatest seizure.

While the CDC notes that in Florida the majority of cases involve the UK variable, with 187 infections as of Thursday, this new study found that variability is responsible for more than 4% of cases in Florida.

The authors of the study sounded the alarm about their findings, urging the U.S. to introduce a ramp to spread the release of the vaccine, which they think may be as the maximum pressure by the end of March.

Quote Cruise

“He’s here, he’s brought the hooks into this country, and he’s on his way to becoming very fast as a mainline,” said study co-author Michael Worobey, a biometric biologist. at the University of Arizona, in an interview with The Washington Post.

Key background

The CDC issued a warning last month that the UK variant could become mainstream in the US by March, outperforming competitive mutations such as the South African variant, Oxford- AstraZeneca on Sunday could cancel their vaccine, as well as the series discovered by researchers in the Midwest and California. Although researchers have not yet determined whether this pressure is more lethal than others, the UK variant has been linked to compliance in other countries it has joined, including Ireland and Portugal. The U.S. has only recently begun to see positive trends in its coronavirus data, including a reduction in deaths and hospitalizations after two devastating months. Health experts, including the authors of this study, are concerned that the UK variable could hamper some US progress if the country does not take immediate action. “We should get the vaccine done as soon as we can,” said James Lu, one of the study’s co-authors.

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