A more contagious variant of the coronavirus first detected in Britain is spreading rapidly in the United States, doubling roughly every 10 days, according to a new study.
Analyzing half a million coronavirus tests and hundreds of genomes, a team of researchers predicted that this variability could be significant in the United States in a month, which could be increasing new cases and increased risk of death.
The new research offers the first nationwide insight into the history of change, known as B117, since it reached the United States in late 2020. Last month, the Centers for Control and Disease Prevention warned that B117 could be under control in March if it could behave as it did in Britain. The new study confirms that projected path.
“Nothing in this paper is surprising, but people need to see it,” said Kristian Andersen, study co – author and virus expert at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. “Perhaps we should prepare for this to be the largest line in most parts of the United States by March. “
Andersen’s team believed that the B117 transmission rate in the United States is 30% to 40% higher than the rate of more common changes, although these figures could rise as more data comes in, he said. . The variable has already been on the rise in other countries, including Ireland, Portugal and Jordan.
“In a few months or weeks, the situation could be very serious,” said Nicholas Davies, a public health researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was not involved in the study. “These may be early signs that require urgent investigation by public health authorities. ”
Davies warned that U.S. data is worse than data for Britain and other countries with nationally variable monitoring systems. However, he found results from some parts of the United States particularly worrying. In Florida, where the new study shows the variable is spreading particularly fast, Davies fears a new rise could hit even faster than the rest of the country.
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“If this data is representative, there may not be much time to act,” he said.
Andersen and his colleagues posted their study online Sunday. Not yet published in a scientific journal.
When the British government announced the discovery of B117 on December 20, Andersen and other researchers in the United States began studying for it in U.S. coronavirus samples. The first case turned Dec. 29 in Colorado, and Andersen found another case shortly thereafter in San Diego. In short order it has been seen in many other parts of the country.
But it was difficult to know how widespread the variation was. In B117 there is a unique set of 23 mutations scattered in a genome that is 30,000 genetic letters long. The best way to find out if a virus belongs to the B117 line is to sequence the entire genome – a process that can only be done with special tools.
The CDC contracted with Helix, a laboratory testing company, to test their Covid-19 samples for B117 signs. The variable can give a negative result on one of the three tests Helix uses to detect the coronavirus. For further analysis, Helix sent these suspicious samples to Illumina to sequence their genomes. Last month Helix reached out to Andersen and his colleagues to help analyze the data.
Analyzing 212 US B117 genomes, Andersen’s team concluded that the most likely variant reached the United States by the end of November, a month before its discovery.
The variant was introduced into the country at least eight times, possibly as a result of people traveling to the United States from Britain between Thanksgiving Day and Christmas.
The researchers combined data from the genome sequence with the results of a complete Helix test to estimate how quickly the variant was transmitted. It has become much more common over the last two months.
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In Florida, the scientists believe that more than 4% of cases are now caused by B117. The national figure may be 1% or 2%, depending on his team’s calculations.
If that is true, 1,000 or more people may become infected with the virus every day. The CDC has only recorded 611 B117 cases, raising evidence about the inadequacy of the country’s genomic study.
In parts of the country where Helix does not do much testing, it seems to deliver disrespect to the spread, Andersen warned.
“I can assure you that there are areas where B117 could be very common with us not building,” he said.
“There is still a lot to learn,” said Nathan Grubaugh, a virus expert at Yale University who was not involved in the study. “But those things are important enough that we have to start doing things now.”
It is possible that chains of B117 transmission spread faster than other viruses. Or B117 may be more common among incoming passengers embarking on new adventures.
“I still think we’re weeks away from getting a proper idea of how this will turn,” said Grubaugh.
Infection of B117 makes it a real threat. Public health measures working on other changes may not be enough to stop B117. More cases in the United States would mean more hospitals, potentially strained hospitals that are only now recovering from last month ‘s highest patient numbers. .
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Making matters worse, Davies and his colleagues at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine posted an online study Wednesday suggesting the B117 death risk is 35% higher than it is for other modifications. The study has not yet been published in a scientific journal.
Communities can take steps to combat changes like B117, as Grubaugh and his colleagues at Yale University explained in the recent journal Cell. For example, they said, health officials should reinforce messages about wearing effective masks, avoiding large gatherings and making sure indoor spaces are well ventilated.
The scientists urged governments to request sick leave from people diagnosed with Covid-19 to stop transmission in the workplace. “Such measures could help to significantly reduce community dispersal,” wrote Grubaugh and his co-authors.
Vaccines can also be part of the strategy to fight B117. In Israel, where variation is now high, new cases, serious illnesses and hospitalizations have already fallen dramatically in people over 65, a group that has been given top priority for vaccines.
“What we need to do with the conventional vaccines is introduce them to as many people as possible as soon as possible,” Andersen said.
Driving down B117 will also reduce the risk of the variable changing to something worse. Already in Britain, researchers have discovered samples of B117 that have undergone a new mutation with the potential to make vaccines so effective. It is unclear whether these viruses will become common. But they prove that the coronavirus has a lot of evolutionary space for study.
“We should expect them to grow here,” Andersen said. “Anything that was true elsewhere is going to be true here too, and we have to deal with it.”