The coronavirus variant that was first identified in the UK in September and has swept the country and further afield in recent months is not only more mobile but also more lethal than earlier changes, a new study has confirmed.
Am B.1.1.7. snoring has spread to more than 60 countries – including China, where the pandemic began more than a year ago – reports to the World Health Organization (WHO). Several countries have also moved to ban air travel from the UK, and the UK has banned flights from Brazil and South Africa.
Researchers found about 1 million people tested for COVID-19 between November and January in community settings, including about 3,000 who eventually died. After reporting other factors influencing COVID-19 outcomes, patients with the new variant had a approximately 35% higher risk of death, they reported medRxiv ahead of a co-study ages.
Among male patients aged 55–69, approximately 1-in-180 died after being infected with older versions of the virus.
With the new version “that has gone up to around … 1-in-140,” co-author Nicholas Davies from the London School of Medicine & Tropical Hygiene told Reuters. The risk of death is still completely below the age of 54, his team said.
For women aged 70-84, the risk of death within 28 days went from 2.9% with the original variant to 3.7% with the new variant in the UK, and for those aged 85 and over it went from 12.8% to 16.4 %. For men aged 70-84, the mortality rate rose from 4.7% to 6.1% and for older men from 17.1% to 21.7%.
The researchers had no data on people diagnosed in hospitals or on infected people who had never been diagnosed. Davies said his team is updating the analysis with more data, “and it looks like the increase in mortality could be as high as 35%.”
The findings are similar to previous statements by British government officials. Prime Minister Boris Johnson had warned of the possibility at a press conference on Downing Street in January.
The government’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance recently told a news conference that “there is evidence that those with the new variant are at greater risk.”
Vallance said that for a man in his 60s with the original strain of the virus, “the average risk is that around 1,000 people would be expected to catch the disease, unfortunately. ”
“With the new change, for 1,000 people infected, it is expected that around 13 or 14 people will die,” he said. However, he emphasized that “the evidence is not yet strong” and further research is needed.
Compared to that uncertainty, he said, there is growing confidence that the variant is easier to administer than the original coronavirus strain. He said viral load was higher and appears to be between 30% and 70% more mobile.
Maria Van Kerkhove, technical director of the World Health Organization on COVID-19, said studies were underway to look at the spread and severity of new viral changes. She said so far “they have not seen an increase in depth” but that more spread could lead to an “overweight health care system” and therefore more deaths.
Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said, “The conclusion about this deadly increase comes from studies carried out by a number of different organizations, although they work with essentially the same data. “
“There is some difference in the estimated risk of death between the different studies, although most but not all show an increased risk of death,” he told Agence France-Press (AFP).
Ian Jones, professor of virology at the University of Reading, said: “The data is limited and the conclusions are initial. However, a higher mortality rate is possible with a virus that has spread its game. ”
British officials say they are confident that the vaccines approved for use against COVID-19 will be effective against the new snoring that has been identified in the country. But Vallance said scientists are concerned that variables identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more stable on vaccines, adding that more research is needed.
The UK is currently in an effort to halt the latest outbreak of the coronavirus outbreak. Pubs, restaurants, leisure centers and many shops are closed, and people have to stay mostly at home. The number of new infections has started to fall, but deaths are still high, averaging more than 1,000 per day, and the number of patients in hospital is 80% higher than at ‘first peak of the pandemic in the spring.