The mutant coronavirus strain first identified in the United Kingdom remains at low levels in the United States but doubles in reach around every 10 days, according to a study published by researchers Sunday.
The study reinforced modeling conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which last month predicted that the more contagious variant could be mainstream in the U.S. by March.
The U.S. still has time to take steps to slow down the new viral strain, the researchers wrote, but warned that without “certain and immediate public health action” mortality is likely to have a devastating effect and COVID-19 morbidity in the U.S. in a few months. “
The research, part-funded by the CDC and National Institutes of Health as well as Canadian Institutes of Health Research, was posted to medRxiv, a pre-server, and did not undergo peer review.
The new coronavirus strain, also known as B.1.1.7, spread rapidly throughout the United Kingdom and has become mainstream in that country, making it some of the toughest measures in the Department. Europe.
Health officials have said existing vaccines are likely to work against new strains, although their effectiveness may be slightly reduced.
The study found that amounts are “relatively low” of B.1.1.7. in the U.S. at present but, due to its rapid deployment, it is “almost certain to become the main line of SARS-CoV-2 by March, 2021.”
The new strain accounted for 3.6% of coronavirus cases in the U.S. in the last week of January, according to the study.
The researchers noted that nationwide distribution monitoring is complicated by the lack of a national genomics study program such as those found in the UK, Denmark and other countries.
They wrote that they had “relatively strong” estimates from California and Florida, but that data outside of these states was limited.
The growth rate of the virus decreased in both states, by B.1.1.7. appearing to spread slightly more slowly in California. The study authors wrote that the strain doubled every 12.2 days in California, 9.1 days in Florida, and 9.8 days nationally.
The study supports the conclusion that the new pressure is already spreading through “significant community dispersal.”
The authors suggest that the virus was introduced into the country through international travel, and spread through domestic travel while millions of Americans crossed the country around free. Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s Day over the fall and winter.
The authors also found that the variance was growing slightly more slowly than in European countries, a fact which they said needs further investigation but which may be due to a lack of conventional data or other factors. – includes “competition from other deliverables”.
Other disturbing coronavirus types have been found in South Africa and elsewhere.
The researchers warned that their findings “confirm the need” for a robust U.S. study of emerging new coronavirus mutations.
“Because laboratories in the U.S. only follow a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true diversity of SARS-CoV-2 prescribing in this country is not yet known,” they wrote.
“The more established surveillance programs in other countries have provided important warnings about a variety of concerns that may affect the U.S., with B.1.1.7 representing just one variant that shows potential for exponential growth, “they said.
“It is only with consistent, impartial series at a scale that includes all geographical and demographic populations including those that are under-represented, as well as co -inter ongoing international scientific operations and open data sharing, which will enable us to evaluate and track new changes that emerge during COVID-19. pandemic, “the researchers wrote.
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