Turkey and Israel are an inch closer to reconciliation

Both countries fired their ambassadors in May 2018 over the killing of dozens of Palestinians by Israeli forces across the Gaza border and after Washington’s decision to move their embassy to Jerusalem.

In December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country wanted better ties with Israel but Israeli policy of the Palestinians remained “inappropriate.”

Erdogan supports the Palestinian cause, and has a controversial relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

Erdogan then said that Turkey had some issues with “top-ranking people” in Israel, adding that Palestine still makes up Turkey’s red line and that it was impossible for Ankara accept Israel’s “ruthless” policies regarding the Palestinian territories.

Turkey and Israel, once allies, have been falling apart in recent years. Ankara has once again criticized Israel’s ownership of the West Bank and its handling of Palestinians.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkish expert from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies (MDC) at Tel Aviv University, says it may be too pre- quick to say that things are going to happen soon.

Yanarocak says that despite the “helpful” signals coming from all sides, no major steps will be taken until the results of next month’s Israeli elections are “crystallized”.

A change in leadership in Israel, he said, can accelerate the warming of ties.

“If Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is unable to secure his seat then, in Turkish eyes, it will be easier to launch a normalization with Israel,” Yanarocak said.

Turkey has also criticized last year’s normalization agreements between Israel and four Muslim countries signed under the auspices of the US.

Yanarocak says these treaties have helped Israel break out of regional isolation, and have given him the upper hand in negotiating with Turkey towards diplomatic relations. development.

Hasan Awwad, an expert on Middle Eastern politics at Bridgeport University in Connecticut, said there is much to be gained from restoring diplomatic ties.

Last week, the first Israeli passenger plane, from the El Al flag carrier, crashed at Istanbul International Airport after a 10-year hiatus. This movement can be seen as an indication that a meltdown in a relationship is in progress.

Awwad says the resumption of ties would have a major impact on both countries’ defense industries.

“If the relationship is back to the same level as Marmara’s brutal events, let’s see closer cooperation in intelligence and commerce,” he said of the Mavi Marmara incident, when Israeli forces in 2010 boarded flotilla linked to Gaza carrying humanitarian aid for Palestinians there who violated Israel ‘s ban on the coastal strip, which ended when nine Turkish militants on board died.

That led to a ten-year freeze in relations between Turkey and Israel.

Yanarocak says Turkey has a right relationship with Israel for the “national interest”.

But the Hamas move is one key challenge in renewing relations between Israel and Turkey.

Ankara supports the Islamic group that governs the Gaza Strip.

“In order to reach ‘real normalization,’ Israeli decision-makers expect Ankara to suspend its support for Hamas,” he said.

Mkhaimar Abusada, associate professor of political sciences at Gaza City’s Al-Azhar University, said the Islamic “ideological ties” between Hamas, part of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Turkish government are led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who leads the Justice and Development Party in Turkey, is “hard to break.”

“I rule out that the development of Israeli-Turkish relations will come at the expense of Hamas. I think it would have an impact on Hamas, but it’s not a big deal, ”he said.

Abusada reveals that Qatar, which it says supports the Muslim Brotherhood, has good relations with both Israel and Hamas.

“Qatar has always used its alliance with Israel to alleviate the suffering of people in the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. Nobody seems to be complaining, ”he said.

However, he said, some of Israel’s demands may “dismiss some Hamas leaders accused of supporting so-called terrorism, but in general, such alliances ultimately for the presence of mediators as a link between Hamas and Israel. “

The movement of regional alliances such as the normalization treaties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, and the renegotiation of Turkey’s relations with Qatar, with the Gulf States including Egypt, may have led to Erdogan reconsidered his foreign policy.

“Regional political change plays a big part. We are facing a level of melting regional differences with the support of the White House and the new U.S. administration, as well as the major changes the region is seeing, such as normalization treaties. , influencing. Turkey does not want to be lonely around it, ”said Abusada.

Yanarocak says these new diplomatic ties may have played a part in forcing Turkey to rethink its policy on Israel.

“Thanks to the Abraham Accords, Israel no longer feels isolated and, thanks to this new geopolitical reality on earth, it feels more confident to ask Turkey to make a complete policy change regarding Jerusalem,” “he said.

The conversation about closer ties with Israel comes at a time when Turkey’s relations with both the US and Europe have reached a low point.

Erdogan’s settling tone a few weeks ago may be offset by a change of guard in the White House.

“It’s related to the influence of President Biden,” Yanarocak said. “From Turkey’s point of view, US-Turkey relations are in a precarious position like never before and with the repair of relations Turkey intends to enjoy Israel’s influence on Capitol Hill in order to reduce diplomatic pressure. “

Erdogan had a calm relationship with the former president of America, with his relationship a kind of “bromance” in which the two leaders were constantly showering each other with praise. Biden’s leadership is expected to be more challenging for Ankara.

Former President Donald Trump has pressed for world leaders to come to his aid for Erdogan, saying the Turkish leader has only listened to him.

Turkey’s maritime claims in the Mediterranean are also a source for tensions with Israel. Expecting the worst, Erdogan seems to be taking cautious steps; for example, by signing a maritime border agreement with Libya giving Turkey a route for pipeline exploration and construction in the Mediterranean.

Ironically, the two countries found common ground when they jointly supported Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the controversial, largely ethnic-Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan. Israeli and Turkish drones and intelligence support from the two countries were crucial there in Azerbaijan’s influence on Iranian-backed Armenian forces.