Trump is leaving behind an Arab world with too many weapons

The $ 1 billion contract between Abu Dhabi and Saab Group (which separated from the eponymous car company in the 1990s) largely extends a five-year agreement signed in 2015 and includes two air inspection systems GlobalEye added, bringing the total number owned by the UAE to five.

“We are proud that the UAE continues to show great confidence in Saab,” said company CEO Micael Johansson. “It shows that Saab is still at the forefront of advanced technology.”

According to the manufacturer’s website, GlobalEye is a “multi-domain Early Warning & Air Control solution” and employs a combination of active and passive sensors that detect and detect long-range objects in the air, at sea and overseas on land.

Tuesday’s deal follows marked sale of F-35 jets to the UAE by the U.S. Last month, the U.S. Senate failed to pass resolutions blocking the $ 23 billion deal, on signed after the Gulf state agreed to a normal relationship with Israel in early August.

Several days later, the White House announced another arms deal, this time with Morocco, which had decided to renew its diplomatic relations with Israel the day before. The $ 1 billion deal includes advanced U.S. drones and precision-controlled weapons.

Purchases of arms by Arab countries were terminated last week with the approval of the Department of State for the sale of approximately $ 290 million of an average of 3,000 guided bombs to Saudi Arabia, which will be added to the $ 500 million purchase of state-of-the-art air force to the ground by Riyadh, announced two weeks earlier.

The shopping spree has picked up as President Donald Trump’s four-year term comes to an end, and could shape the Middle East in irreversible ways.

“The US is the world’s largest arms exporter, using every opportunity available to control other markets. Selling strategic arms like drones, air defenses and other systems, as well as the financial benefits, will allow clients to be politically discounted, ”said Ami Rojkes Dombe, defense and technology analyst and person at the Israel Defense Defense magazine.

“In a larger geopolitical context, these movements… are in response to Russian and Chinese expansion in the Middle East and Africa. These treaties are a kind of flag-waving in the Gulf of Sahara and Persian by Washington, ”he says.

Dombe sees clear differences in the recently signed contracts.

The Moroccan contract consists mostly of drones and precision arms. These types of weapons allow the Moroccan army to counter the anarchist war currently being waged by the Polisario Opposition, “the rebel movement looking to end it. Moroccan presence in Western Sahara, “he says.

“There is no doubt that this gives Rabat a foothold in this battle compared to nearby Algeria, which is in charge of the Russian military. [and which is the main supporter of the Polisario Front], ”He says.

“It will be interesting to see if Moscow or Beijing respond with their own massive attack drones.”

Regarding the latest sale of precision bombs to Riyadh, Dombe explains that the ongoing war in Yemen, where a Saudi-led gathering of Arab states is fighting against the Iranian-backed Houthi movement, is on air strikes asked largely, as Saudi forces have suffered badly on the ground.

“The deal between the UAE and Saab is similar,” he says. “The UAE is involved in conflict with terrorist groups in Libya, Yemen and elsewhere, and is also heavily dependent on airstrikes and controlled local probation forces. So expanding its fleet will allow it to gather more information, lead combat jet strikes and gain a foothold at certain points of interest. “

Seth Binder, advocacy officer at the project on Middle Eastern Democracy, says the UAE treaties would have the biggest impact on the region.

“If so [they] concluded, the UAE is the only other country in the region, apart from Israel, that would have the fifth-generation fighter jet, ”he says, noting that a State Department has recognized Washington himself worries about the sale, sending a rare note to Congress on the matter.

“The sale of the F-35, in particular, has the potential to lead to a significant increase in arms race in the region, not only with Iran trying to match capabilities, but with other US partners who are want the same advanced equipment, “Binder said.

Qatar has already made a formal bid to buy the stealth jets, a move that Binder explains puts President Joe Biden in a “difficult position as to whether to sell even more advanced jets to com U.S. partners, further threatening Israel’s binding qualitative arms margin, “or harassing regional partners who want only what their neighbor has received.”

While analysts agree that the incoming administration will take a completely different approach to the Gulf military issue, Robert Kubinec, an associate professor of political science at campus, is not. Abu Dhabi at New York University, expects these contracts to end completely.

“US bipartisan support has been for military cooperation with the Gulf states for a long time. Of course the Biden Administration… takes a different tack, but Biden is not a revolutionary in terms of foreign policy… [As] as vice president, he oversaw military movements to Saudi Arabia, ”Kubinec says.

While the new president may “attach more ties to these treaties, he will do his best to maintain close ties with the Gulf states.”

Binder expects a more aggressive approach from the White House: “Not only do I expect the new administration to withdraw from some of the most controversial… egregious arms contracts, I expect [Biden] review the ones that the Trump Administration has been pushing through recently during this lame duck period, ”he says.

As for the reasons behind the splurge of recent months, despite their timing, the contracts do not appear to be directly linked to higher-level attacks between Iran and the US

“These sales are not the right mechanism to stop Iran, since the most direct threat is not a conventional war… but unfair wars, an agent,” Binder says. added that “the weak delivery time” for much of the military means it will remain in the hands of U.S. partners “for years to come.”

Over the last two years of Trump’s presidency, the frost between Washington and Tehran has gradually escalated, with the fall of an American drone near the Hormuz Strait in June of 2019 serving as the most obvious crescendo.

Last year’s assassination in Baghdad of Iran’s chief general Qasem Soleimani by the U.S. raised concerns about military retaliation by the Islamic Republic.

“Saudi Arabia and the UAE have had ongoing relations with the United States regarding arms movements for a long time,” Kubinec says, citing a former multi-billion-dollar deal by former president Barack Obama to deliver F-15s to Saudi Arabia back in 2012.

“These countries have been renewing their capabilities in response to hostile threats around the region, not just Iran. I don’t think arms buying is just driven by current concerns about Iran’s military activity. ”