US President Donald Trump could take “reckless” military action against Iran in his last days in office, experts have warned, as tensions between Tehran and Washington escalate. going up on the eve of the first anniversary of the massacre of Qassem Soleimani of Iran.
The U.S. bombed B-52s over the Gulf three times last month, most recently Wednesday, in which the Trump administration announced a preventative measure to keep Iran from retreating on Jan. 3, head -year Soleimani was killed in a US drone strike.
But with less than a month left in the White House, Trump is under pressure from key allies in the Middle East – namely Israel and Saudi Arabia – to take action on Iran, said Danny Postel, deputy director of the Middle East. Center for International and Regional Studies at Northwestern University.
“Trump is a very injured and fully cornered animal in an end-game situation. He has a few weeks left, and we know that he is capable of very erroneous behavior, ”Postel, an expert on Iranian and US foreign policy, told Al Jazeera in an interview.
“Perhaps he still has his most erratic, reckless lashing yet to come.”
On Saturday, Iran ‘s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said, “New information from Iraq[s] that Israeli agents are planning attacks against Americans – putting Trump out of touch with a false casus belli. “
Without giving evidence to support his claims, Zarif warned Trump to “be careful about trapping”. “Any firework goes back badly, especially against your only BFFs [best friends forever], ”He tweeted.
New information from Iraq and Israeli agents are planning attacks against Americans – putting Trump out of touch with a fake casus belli.
Be careful of snares, @realDonaldTrump. Any firework goes back badly, especially against your only BFFs.
– Javad Zarif (@JZarif) January 2, 2021
Biden Administration
Earlier in the week, Iran warned the U.S. not to extend the situation before the anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination, with Zarif saying Thursday that “intelligence from Iraq was invading [sic] plot to FABRICATE introduction to war ”.
“Ioran will not seek war but will protect the people, security and vital interests,” said the minister. tweet. That same day, Iran criticized Washington’s “military daring” in a letter to the UN Security Council.
Iranian officials have vowed “hard revenge” for the murder of Soleimani at Baghdad’s international airport.
However, experts are unsure whether Tehran would allow the Trump administration to launch an armed conflict right now as U.S. President Joe Biden, who plans to resume diplomatic talks with Tehran, is about to resign. will take up the post on 20 January.
Biden has said he intends to revert to Iran ‘s nuclear treaty, the Integrated Action Plan (JCPOA), a landmark treaty signed during the presidency of President Barack Obama. saw Iran increase its nuclear wealth in exchange for lifting international sanctions.
U.S. President Joe Biden has vowed to return to Iran’s nuclear deal [File: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]
Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in 2018 as part of his administration’s “most pressure” campaign against Tehran, which also saw Washington impose strict sanctions on several key Iranian businesses.
This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran ‘s uranium stockpile was 12 times the limit set by the JCPOA in November. Iran also informed the IAEA on Friday that it planned to enrich uranium to 20 percent, a level it only reached before the JCPOA.
But supporters of diplomatic communications say this is the only way to ensure Iran abides by international rules, while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said his country will return to the agreement if the other signatories do the same.
Last week, a group of 150 Democratic Party delegates in the U.S. House of Representatives persuaded Biden to return to the nuclear deal.
“We are united in our support for the swift diplomatic steps to be taken swiftly to restore restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program and to return both Iran and the United States to comply with the [JCPOA] as a starting point for further discussions, ”he wrote in a letter of 24 December (PDF).
‘War of choice’
The Pentagon announced Thursday that the USS Flight carrier Nimitz, who was off the coast of Somalia, was taking him back home. Some U.S. officials said the move could be a sign of an effort to ease regional tensions.
But concerns remain that Trump – who still refuses to accept Biden’s victory in U.S. elections – could take action to tighten Iran’s position. The president in November called for military options to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities but rejected the action, U.S. media reported.
Experts also said in November that the murder of a top Iranian nuclear scientist – an act that many observers blamed on Israel, but no claim of duty had been made – was aimed at exacerbating Biden’s plan for diplomacy resumed with Ioran.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a think tank in Washington, DC, said Trump’s main supporters – evangelicals and Israeli supporters in particular – could be pushing for conflict .
The killing of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November could hamper US President Joe Biden’s efforts to resume talks with Tehran, experts say [Iranian Defence Ministry/AFP]
With rumors circulating that Trump intends to run 2024 for president, the Republican leader may decide to “start an option war with Iran to finally assassinate the JCPOA and strengthen its grip on the GOP [Republican Party]”, Parsi told Al Jazeera in an email.
Barbara Slavin, director of the Atlantic Council’s future Iranian Initiative, said on Friday that “the threat of a wider war between the US and Iran remains as both the Trump administration and Israel have invested more. recently entered the area ”.
“Such a conflict would be an awful high for U.S. policy that failed with the‘ most weight ’, Slavin wrote,“ which saw the U.S. pull unilaterally from the JCPOA in 2018 while Iran fully surrendered. “
An emergency moment
She said there was a window for diplomacy ahead of Iran’s main elections in June – and that communication was the only way forward.
“The United States – and Israel – cannot pave the way for Iran’s non-proliferation or achieve that goal through cyber attacks. Only diplomacy has been effective in limiting Iran’s nuclear activity. This is the only positive way forward, ”said Slavin.
Meanwhile, Postel drew a comparison between the last days of the Trump administration and the days of former President George W. Bush in 2008 before Obama took office.
At the time, Israel and Saudi Arabia were similarly fishing for military action against Iran, Postel said, and “there was a very similar intensification – at least – of saber astronomy and aggressive astronomy coming from Bush administration ”.
Postel said who is in power in the U.S. and Iran is desperately influencing the prospect of diplomacy. For example, Iran’s nuclear deal was reached when Obama and Rouhani – who were both for international support – were in office.
He said Iran’s toughness could be set to defeat Rouhani in the next elections in the country later this year, making the current moment – with Biden ready to take office – more importantly.
“I think this is a very important time in US-Iran relations where there may be an opportunity to remove war from the equation and find a diplomatic solution to at least the key. this case of Iran ‘s nuclear program, “he said.
“This is an important point we find ourselves in in a relationship between the US and Iran.”