An extremely hot and dry study that is currently putting parts of the UK at worst risk of wildfires one hundred per cent occurring every two years in a few decades as a result of climate change. A study, led by the University of Reading, predicts how the risk of wildfires increases in the future shows that parts of the east and south of England could be at the highest risk level in almost four days per year on average by 2080 with high emissions, compared to once every 50-100 years now. Wildfires require a source of mitigation that is difficult to predict, so wildfire risk is usually measured by the likelihood of a fire developing after a shower of ignition. This fire hazard is affected by the weather. As temperatures rise and summer rains decline, conditions that are very convenient for wildfires could be nearly five times more common in some parts of the UK by the end of the century. In the drier regions, this could put habitats at risk for up to four months a year on average, the scientists found. Professor Nigel Arnell, climate scientist at Reading University who led the research, said: “Extremely hot and dry conditions are perfect for large wildfires in the UK at the moment, but climate change is making them more common. decades in the future, wildfires could pose a greater threat to the UK than they currently do in southern France or parts of Australia. ”This fire threat threatens wildlife and the environment, as well as life and property, but is still currently considered a threat in many parts of the UK.This research highlights the importance of taking risks from wildfires in the UK , as they are likely to be a growing problem in the future. ” In the new study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, scientists looked at the frequency of different categories. of the UK there would be a situation that would make it very likely that any wildfire would be established. They calculated future fire risk based on the latest UKCP18 climate conditions with low and high emissions of greenhouse gases, using a version of the Met Office fire. used to define wildfire risk levels. They found that the average number of ‘very high’ risk days each year would rise sharply in all parts of the UK by 2080. With the exception of London, the south and east of England it was expected to be higher. worse. affected, with the average number of days at risk greater than a square, up to 111 days in the South East and 121 days in the east of England on average though. A significant increase was also seen by 2080 in the mid-west of the country (from 13 up to 96 days). Even traditional wet parts of the UK would dry out longer, leaving them exposed to large fires for an average of several weeks each year, including Wales (5 to 53), Northern Ireland (2 to 20). , and the west of Scotland (3 to 16). ‘Special risk’ days – currently very rare across the UK – have been found to be more common across the UK by 2080, with the east of England (0.02 to 3.55), the East Midlands ( 0.03 to 3.23), the Southeast (0.01 to 1.88), and Yorkshire and Humberside (0.01 to 1.55) all saw a significant increase in numbers of days per year when these conditions were present. The research showed that the expected increase in fire risk is largely due to warmer temperatures, less rain, lower humidity and stronger winds than are expected across the UK. the coming decades as a result of climate change. Wildfires pose environmental, health and economic threats. Although the UK records tens of thousands of fires each year, these are almost negligible, especially compared to those in countries and regions such as Australia and California, which have the same types of climate. warmer and drier is expected for the UK in the coming decades. Although the UK has suffered very little loss from wildfires to date, it is estimated that up to £ 15m a year can be spent dealing with them. There is no co-ordinated strategy for wildfires in England, just a voluntary forum that has no powers to set standards or guidelines. Notable examples of wildfires in the UK are the Swinley Forest fire on the Surrey / Berkshire border in May 2011 which threatened critical infrastructure; the Saddleworth Moor fire in the Peak District in May 2018 and the Wanstead Flats fire in London in July 2018 which forced the two residents to evacuate; loss of residential and commercial property in Marlow, Buckinghamshire, in July 2018; and a widespread fire in Moray, Scotland, in April 2019 that threatened an onshore wind farm. While natural weather and climate have a direct bearing on the establishment of a wildfire ‘threat’, the ‘risk’ of a wildfire often depends on deliberate or unintentional human actions know. So this study does not reveal the likelihood of wildfires occurring, just the most likely level if they did occur.
NOTES TO EDITORS
A table showing how fire risk is expected to increase in 14 regions of the UK can be found in the full research paper (available on request).
Full reference: Arnell, N., Freeman, A., Gazzard, R. (2021); ‘The impact of climate change on UK fire hazard indicators’; Environmental Research Letters; https: /
The University of Reading hosts the research group SPECIAL, part of the Leverhulme Center for Wildfires, Environment and Society. Professor Sandy Harrison, a palaeoclimatologist in the University’s Department of Meteorology, is an associate director of the Center. The £ 10m Center is the first to try to tackle wildfires from a global perspective, to develop, predict and manage their capacity.
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