- The variant of coronavirus detected in the United Kingdom could lead to an increase in new cases of COVID-19.
- This approach would put even more pressure on our existing health care system.
- In addition, there are other indigenous changes that could accelerate the pandemic over the coming months.
The new coronavirus variant discovered in the United Kingdom is thought to be the most prevalent in the United States by March.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recently been announced
The variant is not thought to cause worsening of illness or reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. But epidemiological evidence suggests that it is up to 50 percent more mobile than other circulating changes.
If left uncontrolled, the B.1.1.7 variant could lead to an increase in new cases, even greater than what we are currently seeing. This would lead to an increase in hospitals and deaths, according to the CDC model.
This approach would put even more pressure on our existing health care system.
But there are a number of factors that could alter the model-changing outcomes, such as vaccines, population immunity, and our behavior.
There are also other new indigenous variants – such as those identified in Ohio and Los Angeles – that could accelerate the spread of the pandemic over the coming months.
The key is to vaccinate as many people as possible and not to let our guard down yet.
The same mitigation measures used throughout the pandemic – wearing a mask, washing hands, and physical speed – work just as well on this difference as any other.
Variation that is 50 percent more mobile may not seem like a big deal, but it can have a big impact, said Dr. F. Perry Wilson, a Yale Medicine physician and clinical researcher, and Coursera’s tutorial on “Understanding Medical Research: Your Facebook Friend is Wrong. ”
“That means that, on average, everyone infected is spread to 50 per cent more people, and then those people spread it to 50 per cent more people, and so on and so on, ”Wilson said.
The CDC estimates that, without vaccination, the variance could cause case burdens to increase from 60 new cases per 100,000 people to over.
The R number, or level of reproduction, is how many people, on average, a person with the infection spreads the coronavirus to.
Experts suspect the R number for SARS-CoV-2 is around 2. But thanks to mask wear, body speed, and population immunity, that number appears to have dropped to around 1.1, Wilson said .
If the variance identified in the UK is 50 per cent more volatile as estimates suggest, the R number would grow to 1.5, the CDC says.
Wilson broke down the math. If 1,000 people became infected with the standard version of SARS-CoV-2 with an R number of 1.1, they would transmit the virus to another 1,100 people. After 10 cycles of this, 2,593 people would be infected.
If the number R were to increase to 1.5 by the variance found in the United Kingdom, 10 cycles would result in 57,665 cases.
“That’s the math that scares me,” said Wilson.
Even if the mortality rate remained the same, Wilson apparently said that the variance could cause “higher mortality simply because cases are rising faster. ”
If the worst case scenario mapped by the CDC plays out, hospitals that are stretched to their limits will get worse. As a result, quality of care may decrease.
“In areas where health systems are close to overcoming, shelter may be needed in their place,” Wilson said.
According to Wilson, vaccines are the best tool we have to reduce the impact of the new change.
To suppress the effect of the variable, we need to reduce the number of people with the virus.
“While masking and social distance are important here, vaccines are probably our best tool, because it seems to be a lot harder to vaccinate a vaccinated person than an unvaccinated person,” said Wilson.
The CDC model estimates that, with widespread vaccination, cases would fall to 40 new cases per 100,000 people by May.
Wilson said that when it comes to vaccines, we are in a race against time.
“These new variables mean we need to get vaccines as soon as possible – removing the collection lines and into your arms – to prevent the rise of newly controlled diseases. with an abstract distribution of the more flexible variables, ”said Wilson.
It will take some time to implement herd protection. Wilson said that it is unlikely that we will reach it until about 80 per cent of people are immunized through vaccination or recovery from the disease.
But even some vaccines provide much – needed relief.
“Even 20 to 30 per cent of the vaccinated population would significantly reduce transmission and provide hospitals with some breathing space,” Wilson said.
Dr. Ilhem Messaoudi, director of the University of California, Irvine Center for Virus Research, said there are many factors that influence the outcomes mapped in models.
They show us what can happen in certain situations, but it is difficult, if not impossible, to pinpoint exactly how things will play out in real life.
“[Models are] very good about keeping us on our toes and keeping us sharp and sensitive, and kind of looking down, ‘Okay, this is our worst situation, we have to do something about it,’ ” said Messaoudi.
However, there are many moving targets that will impact on the outcomes, such as:
- how many people are previously free from the infection or vaccine
- our conduct and whether we adhere to public health safety measures
- age
- place
- health status
- the housing of the population
There could be other new changes that will build up speed across the country, all of which will affect distribution over the coming months.
Some experts suspect that another variable found in South Africa – the B.1.351 variant – may already be in the United States.
Another new variant that has the same trend as the B.1.1.7 version was discovered in Ohio last week. Los Angeles, too, identified a variable, CAL.20C, that may be driving an increase above local hospitals.
Messaoudi said there seems to be a ton of changes in circulation, and scientists are just not putting them in order.
And as the coronavirus continues to evolve, as it often does, more changes emerge.
“If so [a] a new mutation works out better for the virus, it’s just going to be a key, ”said Messaoudi.
The CDC model shows that universal, more stringent compliance with public health measures used to prevent the spread of COVID-19 will buy us more time to reach higher levels of population immunity through vaccination. .
There is no evidence that the B.1.1.7 variable defies the mitigation strategies used to prevent spread.
A combination of safety precautions such as wearing a mask and getting more arm vaccines – even with more diffuse changes going around – puts us in a better position 6 months from now, Messaoudi said.
“It’s worrying that it’s easier to spread. That means, more than ever, that we should not let down our guard, ”said Massaoudi.
The new variant found in the United Kingdom is expected to be the most stressed in the United States by March.
If left uncontrolled, the B.1.1.7 variant could lead to an increase in new cases, even greater than what we are currently seeing. This would lead to an increase in hospitals and deaths, according to the CDC model.
The fast, widespread vaccine is our best bet for mitigating the potential impact of the new variables.
In the meantime, public health safety measures, such as wearing masks, will help prevent the spread of all coronavirus variants.