These are the threats to Israel for the coming year

It is not unlikely that Israel will face an external security challenge in 2021, an “open account” for Iran and it may act aggressively mainly through its envoys, and although Israel’s enemies are deterred from fighting it, security events may lead to an unplanned escalation. This is stated in the strategic assessment and threat index for 2021 of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) submitted today (Wednesday) by the head of the Institute for National Security Studies, Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Yadlin, to President Reuven Rivlin.

The report states that Israel enjoys the status of a regional power, but the corona crisis has revealed weaknesses in it: a deep political crisis, the paralysis of the government without a budget; Disruptive decision-making process and deepening gaps between groups in society.

For the first time since the Institute for National Security Studies began publishing the annual ranking of threats, the internal challenge in the expert survey was found to be one of the three leading threats to Israel’s national resilience and security.

But despite the internal challenge, one should not err in the illusion that the external challenges have disappeared. Israel has deterrence against its enemies, it is estimated, but the fronts it faces are explosive: Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. In all three, despite mutual deterrence between the parties, there is a chance of escalation, confrontation and an all-out war – more than one front at a given time, including with Iran.

According to the report, due to instability and difficulty in controlling developments, the chance of deterioration getting out of control requires maintaining a high level of readiness. The Palestinian problem has not disappeared either, and the weakening of the pressure and influence in the PA, in light of the establishment of official relations between Israel and Arab countries, could spur a return to violence.

The institute listed the leading threats in order of severity: the “First North” war – against Iran, Hezbollah, the Syrian regime, pro-Iranian militias and attacks from western Iraq as well. This is the most serious military threat, and it is recommended that it constitute the threat of attribution to the readiness of the IDF and other security forces.

The struggle against the Iranian nuclear program – According to the INSS, there is a low chance of extreme scenario of a bomb being broken, but this is the most serious possibility as a potential for an existential threat to Israel. However, the change of government in Washington requires Israel to find ways of dialogue that will reduce the dangers inherent in a potential U.S. return to the nuclear deal, and ensure a credible military option.

The US administration is expected to be friendly to Israel, But there may be points of disagreement on issues in which Israel has enjoyed the support of the outgoing administration, for example in the Palestinian arena and in the context of a return agreement with Iran. Israel will be required to continue resolutely in proactive actions to weaken the Iranian-Shiite axis, in order to prevent it from building and strengthening military fronts against Israel.

Israel is working in Syria against the establishment of Iran and its emissaries, including Hezbollah, eroding and slowing it down, but the Iranians seem determined to continue. On the other hand, the series of blows they have suffered reduces their ability to restrain themselves and may lead to a reaction against Israel, through their emissaries in the north, Iraq and Yemen. The presence of hundreds of accurate missiles by the Iranian axis, and in particular by Hezbollah, is a strategic threat against which the State of Israel must formulate a strategy.

Among other things, the Institute recommends to the Government of Israel To prepare for dialogue between President Biden’s administration and the international community and Iran, And define Israel’s vital interests under a new nuclear agreement. Israel is committed to preparing for two scenarios – renewed negotiations or an Iranian crawl towards the nuclear threshold, and to combine them. The two scenarios require understandings and a joint action plan with the United States.

First and foremost, it was written, agreements should be reached on an improved agreement with Iran in relation to the 2015 agreement. The amendment to the agreement should focus on a significant extension of the “investment” clauses, on supervision “anywhere and at any time”, on limiting research and development and on completing the clarification on the issue of the weapons program. In addition, a “parallel agreement” is required between Israel and the United States on a common policy against Iran, if it continues to crawl into the nucleus. At the same time, an offensive option must be held and agreements reached with the United States regarding the conditions for such action.

The institute also recommends Rebuild relations with the Democratic Party and the Jewish community in the United States, Along with maintaining good relations with the Republican Party. Israel must rebuild and strengthen relations with the European Union and with Western countries on the continent, and prepare for the day after Angela Merkel’s tenure.

Lebanon is in the midst of an economic, political and health crisis – Of the donkeys she knew. The crisis is also affecting Hezbollah but is not stopping its intensification, with the help of Iran. The INSS Institute emphasizes that the government shouldPrepare for a multi-arena war (Northern War) and make sure that the public is aware of its characteristics, with an emphasis on serious damage to the civilian home front. At the same time, an initiated political and security effort must be initiated to prevent war and to exhaust other alternatives for advancing Israel’s goals in the northern arena.

Against terrorist organizations in Gaza – The institute recommends concluding a ceasefire with Hamas and a solution to the issue of IDF casualties and civilians held in Gaza, in exchange for improving the situation of the population and civilian infrastructure, and in an effort to curb its military buildup.

The regional environment – Normalization with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and possibly other countries, is in a strategic line with a positive impact both on the national security and economic level. In the regional arena, the institute recommendsCooperate with Egypt, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, as well as attempt to improve relations with Turkey, Despite the challenges along the way. As for the Palestinian Authority, the new US administration is expected to show less support for Israel’s positions compared to the Trump administration, and it is expected that European countries, against the background of a renewed transatlantic rapprochement, will persuade it to work to renew the political process.

In any case, Israel has an interest in having a functioning and non-hostile Palestinian Authority. It is therefore right to take a supportive approach, aimed at strengthening it as the only legitimate address for a future settlement, and to set a political goal of “transitional arrangements” that will shape a reality of separation and outline conditions for the future reality of two states.

The institute recommends renewing the political dialogue with Brussels, harnessing European countries against the threats of Iran and its emissaries and Turkey’s challenges, raising ideas for European integration initiatives, and integrating European inputs on the Palestinian issue, while leveraging normalization between Israel and the Gulf states.

The institute also recommends developing relations with China in coordination with the United States, expanding the base of expertise in Israel on China and improving its risk management; the channels of coordination with Russia must be preserved; in connection with world Jewry, relations with Jewish communities must be strengthened.

Rivlin referred to the report and said that “in every challenge there is also the opening and the hope for a new opportunity. I mentioned the uncertainty. Uncertainty is always an opening for risks, but also for opportunities – and new opportunities. We have to deal with risks – and seize opportunities. There is an urgent need to restore trust. “Between the citizens of Israel and the state. Trust that has been damaged in the past year – in a severe way, perhaps even fatal.”

Rivlin added that “the second comment relates to the election. This is the fourth election in two years, and my last as president. The greatest thing in Israeli society, between one man and another. “

The government must, he noted, “engage in the free hatred that shakes the foundations of our national resilience. If a stable government is not formed, the responsibility falls on the shoulders of Knesset members, from all parties.”