Although the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in the UK has a very low frequency in the United States, the paper states that it doubles every week and a half, similar to what was seen there. the other countries. The report estimates that this variation is 35-45% faster than the series that appeared earlier in the United States, and doubles about every 10 days in the country.
Last month, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention models predicted that the B.1.1.7 variant could be mainstream in the United States by March. It estimates that the virus is about 50% more mobile.
“Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar path to other countries where B.1.1.7 quickly became a major variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate action to reduce morbidity and mortality COVID-19, “researchers wrote in the preface to the study, which has not yet been reviewed or published by peers.
In addition to groups of cases in California, Florida and Georgia, few B.1.1.7 cases in the United States reported recent international travel, the report said, suggesting that “cross- a large community of the B.1.1.7 variant has already followed across the US “
U.S. labs still follow just a small subset of coronavirus samples, the paper said, so it’s unclear what variables are circulating in the country. Without “decisive and immediate public health action,” new, more flexible changes “are likely to have a devastating effect on COVID-19 mortality and morbidity in the U.S. in a few months,” warning.
Helix President Dr. James Lu told CNN last week that the company had been monitoring evidence that B.1.1.7 cases are growing, and not just production of more genetic sequences across the country.
“The growth rate here in Florida and Southern California looks very similar to the kind of growth we’ve seen before in the UK and Denmark … where B.1.1.7 became a major variable flow very fast, “Lu said.
It is unclear whether the speed of vaccination in the United States will prevent the pressure from gaining a foothold in places where it is not already circulating, he said.
“We’re in a race between the vaccine and the new series,” Lu said.
Dr. Anthony Fauci last week suggested that the U.S. is not vaccinating people fast enough to stay ahead of new changes. That could adversely affect vaccination efforts to bring things to a standstill, he told CNN. “If the changes and mutations come, and they start to gain the upper hand, that is going to take away some of the effects of the vaccine,” he said.
More than 610 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant were detected in 33 states, according to CDC. Most are in Florida and California. The first U.S. case was announced on Dec. 29, but the earliest known cases stretch back earlier. A study in the new study reveals that the B.1.1.7 variant reached the United States as early as the end of November 2020.
The strain has also been found in at least 80 countries and regions around the world, the World Health Organization said last week.
The United States has also seized five cases in two states of the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa, and two cases in one state of the P.1 variant first identified. in Brazil.
Michael Nedelman of CNN and Andrea Diaz contributed to this report.