Against the background of the publications about the prime minister’s anger at the campaign people because of the dramatic loss of votes from previous elections, the Smith Institute today (Thursday) publishes a special survey conducted throughout election day, according to which one can learn how the votes moved between parties.
The Smith Institute interviewed 1740 voters as a representative sample of the adult Jewish population who voted on Election Day. The survey was conducted in a combination of telephone interviews and an Internet panel and its purpose was to examine how the Israeli public changed its vote compared to the previous March 20 elections (so-called “vote transitions”).
What happened to the Likud?
About 74.5% of Likud voters in the March 20 elections once again voted for the Likud, about 1,007,00 votes equivalent to 28 seats, known as Netanyahu’s base.
7.2% of Likud voters on March 20 passed and voted for a new hope led by Saar – about 97,000 votes equivalent to about 2.7 seats, which proves that Saar did not enter the campaign with significant power behind him from the Likud, probably one of the causes of failure.
6.6% of Likud voters on March 20 passed and voted to the right led by Bennett about 89,000 votes equivalent to about 2.4 seats. On the other hand, a little more than 20,000 who voted for the right in the last election voted for the Likud this time, so in practice the Likud “lost” about 2 seats to the right.
4.5% of Likud voters on March 20 went to vote for “religious Zionism” led by Smutrich, with 61,000 votes equivalent to 1.7 seats. In addition to religious Zionism, this time the Likud lost another 50,000 votes to blue-and-white and there is a future, along with Saar, which is the reason for the decline of about 200,000 votes in the Likud.
How many Arab-Israelis supported the Netanyahu bloc? The election data show that the Likud gave up the bloc “in favor of Netanyahu” as a mandate in the sector.
How did they vote in blue and white?
44.6% of “blue and white” voters in the previous election this time voted for Lapid – about 543,000 votes equivalent to almost 15 seats (they currently constitute 83% of voters have a future today).
Another interesting finding is that 19.4% of “blue and white” voters a year ago voted for Bnei Gantz (excluding Yair Lapid) about 236,500 votes equivalent to 6.4 seats (they constitute about 80% of his supporters today). That is, almost 1 in 5 who voted for Gantz and Lapid voted for Gantz this time only.
11.1% of the “blue and white” voters in March 20 passed and voted for Gideon Saar – 134,200 votes and an equivalent of 3.7 seats per Saar.
About 36,000 votes went from a white brush to “Yisrael Beiteinu” equivalent to a mandate.
About 24,000 votes went from “blue and white” to the right led by Bennett equivalent to two-thirds of the seats.
Part of the success of the Labor Party stems from the fact that about 112,000 “blue and white” voters in the last election passed and this time voted for the Labor Party, equivalent to about 3 seats (constituting about 42% of the Labor Party voters).
About 42,000 votes went from “blue and white” to the Likud – a little more than a mandate.
Labor Party-Meretz
43% of those who voted for the party a year ago this time voted for the Labor Party led by Merav Michaeli – 115,000 votes, equivalent to about 3.1 seats (constituting about 46% of the party’s voters today).
Another 19,000 votes were transferred from Labor-March in March 20 to “Blue and White” equivalent to half a seat.
Meretz, which ran separately from Labor – received 38% of the Labor-Meretz voter a year ago, 101,000 votes and 2.8 seats.
Pointers to the right
This time the party competed separately from “Religious Zionism” led by Smutrich, of which it was a year ago.
51% of those who voted for the party a year ago voted for it again today, led by Bennett, equivalent to 123,000 votes, equivalent to 3.3 seats. About a third passed and voted for “religious Zionism” 80,000 votes (equivalent to 2.2 seats).
The data also show that “religious Zionism” received support from “Jewish power” voters in the last election (the number of cases is small) and also among the ultra-Orthodox sector, a total of over 60,000 votes, equivalent to 1.5 seats.
Haredi parties
Maintained mainly their power, but experienced a significant decrease in the number of voters, most of whom flocked to Smutrich and Ben Gvir: 86% of Shas voters voted for it again and only about 82% of Torah Judaism voters voted for their party again.
Israel is our Home
A little less than 60% of its voters a year ago voted for her again about 145,000 votes almost 4 seats, while 18% went to vote for Gideon Saar – about 470000 votes equivalent to 1.3 seats while 11.7% went to vote for Bennett’s right, 30,500 votes, a little less Mandate.
To the question – When will you finally decide which party to vote for?
19% One in 5 answered who decided today (at the polls or on the way to the polls) – the highest holder in all the polls we conducted in the last 3 election campaigns.
11% indicated in the last two to three days.
7% a week ago.
8% about two to three weeks ago.
55% two to three months ago.
26% of “blue and white” voters indicated that they had finally decided to support the party, Election Day Which illustrates the momentum the party has received in recent days when another 24% indicated that they have decided in the last two or three days).
31% of Labor Party voters decided to give it final support on Election Day and another 14% in the last two or three days, also illustrating what the party received at the end.
As for Meretz, 21% of its voters decided on election day to support it and another 15% in the last two or three days.
Among Likud voters, only 7% finally decided to vote for it on Election Day and another 4.5% in the last two or three days (lower than average).
Among religious Zionist voters, 14% made a final decision on election day and 10% in the last two or three days.
Among Yesh Atid voters, 16% made a final decision on election day and 13% in the last two or three days.