The hope is a few percent: What is the chance of the team to rise?

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here it comes. The World Cup qualifiers will kick off tonight (Wednesday) with the participation of Israel and 54 other European teams in a race for 13 tickets to the most important tournament in the world to be held in the winter of 2022 in Qatar. And as before any tournament of this type, it is intriguing to know what the chances of each team are, with an emphasis of course on Israel.

Before that we will explain the method: UEFA divided the teams into five houses of five and five houses of six. The first of each house automatically advances (10 teams) to the World Cup, with the 10 runners-up advancing to the playoffs, along with the 2 winners of the Nations League, who will not advance Directly through the World Cup qualifiers.In the playoffs, the teams will be divided into three tracks with four teams, with the winner of each track completing the picture of the 13 immigrants to Qatar.

The We Global Football team has published the forecast of the newcomers automatically and those who will succeed in the playoffs based on past data. The forecast is based on the national team ranking on the basis of results in the last three years and varies according to the results in each and every round of the World Cup qualifiers. The Gracenote Statistics Institute also published similar results according to its own internal ranking. The percentages are a little different, but the bottom line remains the same.

According to WGF on the eve of the campaign, Israel gets only a 0.8 percent chance to finish first at home and another 7.4 percent to reach the playoffs. That means more than 91 percent chance that the team will finish in third place and below. Scotland, which we have already met in the League of Nations and in the Euro playoffs, is expected to compete against Israel for third place and receives only 1.2 percent to qualify directly for the World Cup and another 8.9 percent to reach the playoffs.

Not giving Israel much of a chance (Alan Shiver)


The one who is expected to win the home title is the first rival of the Blue-Whites, the Danish team that gets 69.5 percent and another 26.6 percent to reach the second place. Austria has only a 28.5 percent chance of finishing at the top and a 70.4 percent second place leading to the playoffs. Of course, the chances of the Faroe Islands and Moldova are low to non-existent in the Israeli home.

According to Gracenote, Israel gets 4.26 percent to first place and 13 percent to qualify through the playoffs. In total, more than 6.5 percent cost Qatar. Here, too, Israel is in fourth place in the hierarchy, with Denmark (60.2 percent in 1st place, 26.14 percent in the playoffs), Austria (26.80 percent in 1st place, 69 percent in the playoffs) and Scotland (8.5 percent in 1st place, 21 percent in the playoffs) ranked above it.

Bottom line, according to statistics experts, Israel should finish in fourth place at home, just like its rank on the eve of the World Cup qualifiers. By the way, out of all the participating teams, there are 34 teams that have a better chance than Israel of qualifying for the World Cup.

According to the forecast, the teams that will automatically qualify for the World Cup will be: Portugal, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Croatia and England.

The teams that will qualify for the playoffs: Wales, Czech Republic, Hungary, Austria, Poland, Switzerland, Serbia, Sweden, Romania, Norway, Ukraine and Russia.

4.26 percent will speak? (Alan Shiver)

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