Analysts are engaged in an urgent effort to quantify the impact of the British Covid-19 vaccine campaign and identify dates when lockout measures can be reduced.
More than 3 million people have been given jobs – most of them elderly or vulnerable or health workers. Researchers are now trying to find out when the first results of the major vaccination program can be seen as the government moves towards its target of more than 13 million people. vaccinated by 15 February.
Most agree that the effect of the vaccine can vary widely regionally and among different groups. Nevertheless, the first signs of the success of the injection are expected to appear in a few weeks.
“We will not see a significant drop in cases over the next few weeks but we should see the vaccine make an impact in our case analyzes, then shortly afterwards in hospital and hospital. then deaths should go down visibly, ”said Professor Adam Finn, of Bristol University.
One analysis released last week by the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group – set up last year by actuaries, epidemiologists and lifelong experts to study the impact of the disease on UK population – painted a graphic picture of the future.
Written by actress John Roberts, he claims that hospital reductions will be seen starting from mid-February, and that they reported deaths in early March. In contrast, the impact on case numbers is likely to be seen more quickly, according to the group’s study. However, the reduction is likely to be smaller.
How vaccines may affect the UK
The impact of the vaccine will be influenced by a number of key factors, Roberts said: the frequency of the virus in the population, the effectiveness of each vaccine, and uptake of the vaccine. If the virus is widespread, and the vaccine is not as effective as expected, the program will take longer to take effect.
Refusal of a vaccine may have the effect of reducing the number of cases.
Nevertheless, a number of key predictions can be made, he says. First, over the next few months, vaccination will only bring down 10% -15% of current levels – as this decline is in line with vaccine uptake.
However, it is in the second category – hospitals – that a large distribution of vaccines will have a clear impact, and that is because the program is specifically targeted at the elderly and vulnerable – those most likely to need it. hospital treatment. As a result, hospitals are likely to start declining in late January and reach 40% of normal levels by mid-March.
This decline will be less pronounced for those entering intensive care units (ICUs). Once in hospital, the elderly are usually not selected for such treatment, so ICU admission is likely to drop to just 65% of normal practice before in early April.
However, it is the effect on mortality rates that is thought to show the greatest impact of vaccines. The rate will not start to fall markedly until the end of February but as soon as the recession begins it should accelerate rapidly so that, by mid – April, Covid – 19 – related mortality rates will be reduced to below 20% of normal rates. This decline – in hospitals and deaths – indicates that the NHS, while still under significant ongoing pressure over the next few weeks, can expect to achieve sustainability by spring.
This hope was shared by England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty, who told a Downing Street news conference on Friday that he believed there was “a reasonable chance that things will be much better in the spring”.
• The government is today urging members of the public to take part in a “national effort” to help friends and family over the age of 80 sign up for vaccinations. The NHS has vaccinated around 45% of people over 80s in England to date. Now health secretary Matt Hancock is urging the public to sign three pledges to support the effort – to “help people over 80”; be “linked” to clinical trials for Covid-19 vaccines and treatments; and “keeping informed” by keeping up to date with the latest NHS advice.