It is not just the lives of Americans that lie on the rapid spread of coronavirus vaccines, it is the livelihood of millions of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic.
Almost every forecast for the U.S. economy predicts a major shift in growth and employment in 2021, but it certainly doesn’t feel that way right now with the coronavirus still spread like wildfire.
The last few weeks alone have shown weaker employment, increased layoffs, and a decline in consumer spending, all marking a failing economy.
Many businesses have closed, cut their working hours and laid off workers, leaving about 10 million Americans who had jobs before the pandemic remained unemployed.
Also: The U.S. lost 140,000 jobs in December. How bad was it?
The bad news did not stop investors from accumulating more money into the stock market, however. They are also promising a major economic recovery this year and next.
What they are looking for most is the pace at which vaccines are being given, how fast the pandemic will eradicate and what steps new President Joe Biden will take to the economy encourage it until the crisis is over.
Read: Consumer inflation rises in December on higher gas prices
Does that refer to the next month or two of economic data, the material that usually moves markets. That’s not all.
These reports will tell us how much ground the economy has lost in recent months, how much ground it needs to make up – and whether the optimism in the economy is moving forward.
“Does the data over the coming months matter? They certainly do, ”said Richard Moody, chief economist at Region Financial.
The key step is to look at workless benefit claims each week, one of the few weekly government reports that is well aware of changes in the health of the economy.
See: MarketWatch Economic Calendar
Unemployment claims, a rough measure of layoffs, began to rise again in November just as the latest and greatest wave of coronavirus cases spread across the country. Last week new claims rose to nearly 1 million from a low of 711,000 two and a half months ago.
Read: Unemployed claims go up to a 5-month high of 965,000
The report is not without its flaws. The government watchdog found that jobless claims were increased during the pandemic.
Read: Unemployed claims raised, GAO found
Also: Why the erroneous report on jobless claims is still useful to investors
Nevertheless the management of jobless claims has led to the rise of coronavirus cases and the rise and fall in employment.
The latest picture of claims is the most important report next week after the Martin Luther King holiday that closes financial markets on Monday, but most of next week’s attention will go towards the establishment of Head President Joe Biden Wednesday.
Read: US budget deficit climbs to $ 144 billion in December – with more red ink on the way
On Thursday Biden outlined a broad new proposal for up to $ 2 trillion in federal spending that included $ 1,400 cash payments to households, additional unemployment payments, and money to roll out COVID-19 vaccines, the among other things, but it is not clear to what extent Congress will ultimately deliver. and how long it will take to penetrate the wider economy. Keep an eye on it.