The Business Risk Register measures the potential risk of COVID-19 transmission

Just a year after the World Health Organization announced that the novel coronavirus is a worldwide pandemic, three COVID-19 vaccines are available in the United States, and more than 2 million Americans receive shots every day.

Americans are desperate to get back to business as usual, but experts warn that opening up the economy too soon could allow the virus to recover. Most foot traffic patterns in restaurants and bars, schools and universities, nail shops and workshops are unknown.

In an article published in Digital Medicine npj, researchers from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) used anonymous cell phone data to construct an Industrial Risk Index, which measures the potential risk of COVID-19 exposure. applied in these establishments.

The team’s index describes both the density of cycles and the length of time individuals stay indoors, describing in more detail human interactions – and therefore the risk of transmission. viral – ongoing within.

Although pre-pandemic and state-of-the-art industrial traffic was studied, industrial foot traffic and its relationship to COVID-19 emissions were not well understood in the so-called ‘new normal’ re- to open. “

Ashley O’Donoghue, PhD, Study C.or answering A.uthor and Economist, Center for Healthcare Delivery Science, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center

“Many forecasting models use anonymous cell phone movement data as a broad measure of resident movement. But it is likely that two regions with the same movement rates will see very different levels of transmission. COVID-19 if people in one area are diligently working at a social distance and people are not in the other. “

O’Donoghue and his colleagues raised their risk index by analyzing trends in foot traffic patterns in more than 1.25 million businesses across eight states from January to June 2020.

In the six states of New England, New York and California, the team saw a 30 percent drop in high-density foot traffic and long visit distances to businesses – two factors that could increase the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks – from the baseline spread to April 2020.

They saw a similar reduction when they looked at dangerous foot traffic patterns in restaurants, bars, universities and personal care centers (which include hair and nail salons and workshops). In both analyzes, risk index rose steadily starting in mid-June as states reduced restrictions.

Next, using county-level COVID-19 data for the same period, the team showed that their index could accurately predict future COVID-19 cases with a one-week delay. The team found that an increase in the county average business risk index was associated with an increase in COVID-19 cases per 10,000 people in one week.

“Not all types of movement equate to an increased risk of dispersal, so it is important to directly measure human interaction when the costs and benefits of reopening and lifting restrictions on businesses, ”said lead author Jennifer P. Stevens, MD, MS, Director of the Center for the Science of Healthcare Delivery at BIDMC.

“Monitoring how individuals use different businesses can provide the kind of information that policymakers need to reopen different businesses in the safest way. “

O’Donoghue, Stevens and team are now building an online decision support tool that will help policymakers and hospital decision-makers monitor weekly risk in their areas.

They have also used a prototype of their device for Massachusetts used by a tertiary academic medical center in Boston to track a potential increase in their service area, and their index integration as a feature in a prediction model for major health. system in Massachusetts.

“Our index can better measure close human interactions, which are important predictors of transmission and help identify potential disease pressures,” Stevens said.