The 2021 elections are underway: who will support Netanyahu?

Likud – fear that Bennett will join the bloc “just not Bibi”

According to the state of the polls today, the Likud has weakened to the region of 30 seats and in some cases even less.

The two parties that are bothering the Likud are the new hope of Gideon Saar and the right, led by Naftali Bennett, which sweeps many votes from the right and the center.

Saar has already announced that he will not be a partner in the Netanyahu-led government, and the Likud estimates that Bennett decided in his heart to replace Netanyahu in power, and that in the moment of truth he will join the bloc “only not Bibi.” As far as the Likud members are concerned, in the upcoming elections there is a real danger of losing power.

Officially, at least, the Likud claims that they did not want to go to the polls. They repeatedly explain that the reason for their reluctance is the corona plague and the difficult economic situation.

But at the same time, the party refused to abide by the rotation agreement with Blue and White, and in fact preferred to go to the polls – but only around June, after most of the population has been vaccinated and the corona plague is already expected to subside.

Sources in the party say that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted two things that they could not convene: not to give rotation to Bnei Gantz and not to go to the polls.

New hope – to maintain momentum

Gideon Saar is without a doubt the biggest earner so far.

Following the announcement of his retirement from the Likud and the establishment of the party, Saar maintains stability in the polls, which give him 20-18 seats. The surprise addition on Tuesday of a senior Likud member, MK Zeev Elkin, may contribute to the intensification of public discourse around his party.

Saar’s move comes alongside the addition of MKs Yifat Shasha-Biton, Yoaz Handel, Zvi Hauser, Michal Shir and Sharan Hashakel. Saar’s big challenge will be to maintain momentum throughout the election period.

The strong opening in the polls can actually make it difficult, since the political system is fundamentally dynamic, and from the impressive achievement he presented at the beginning, it will be easy to deteriorate. Saar is making great efforts to add famous people to his list, and in recent weeks he has been having a lively dialogue and exerting heavy pressure on former chief of staff Gadi Izenkot.

Right – stop the decline in polls

Until two weeks ago, Naftali Bennett climbed the polls to heights of 20 seats, and was placed as someone who might replace Netanyahu as prime minister.

But then Gideon Saar arrived, set up a new list, and presented the right-wing party with no small challenge. Polls were not long in reflecting the decline and now Bennett predicts about 13 seats. So far, Bennett has kept the official statement of his intention to replace Netanyahu by the time elections are officially announced. Now, with the dissolution of the Knesset, he is no longer afraid to say so openly.

By the time the lists are submitted, the right must reach an internal agreement between the two parties that make up the list: Bennett’s new right and Bezalel Smutrich’s National Union. They will have to agree on the order of places on the united list and also on substantive and dramatic issues, such as Smutrich’s demand not to join Avigdor Lieberman or Yair Lapid after the election. The party does not plan to bring new “stars” or glittering names to the list, but mainly people identified with a proven track record of doing both in the private market and in the periphery.

Shas – Unrivaled industrial quiet

The Spanish ultra-Orthodox party did not want elections, but also claim that they are the last to fear them.

In each of the last three elections, Shas has grown in number of voters. In the third election, the party was not far from ten seats. In fact, Shas has stood the test four times – local elections and three times national elections – and achieved satisfactory results. Shas has a high-quality computerized system that manages to map its voters and reach them accurately.

This time, too, the Shas will unequivocally declare that they are going with Netanyahu. Since Eli Yishai ran on a separate list and failed, there is no real threat to the party, and there is “industrial silence” within it. The party does not plan to make far-reaching changes. “Young people like Moshe Arbel, Yinon Azulai and Michael Malkieli are sweeping compliments on public activity that is not only related to the party’s electorate.

There is a future – out there – an alternative; Inside – shaking

The Yesh Atid party sees itself as the opposition alternative to Netanyahu, but has suffered internal upheavals in recent times. One of the party’s senior Knesset members and Lapid’s good friend, Ofer Shelach, has stated that he is interested in running against the chairman in the primaries. Yesterday he retired and formed his own party.

MK Moshe (Boogie) Ya’alon, a partner on the part of TLAM, also announced recently that he intends to split from the party due to the fear that Lapid has a glass ceiling and an inability to form a government, due to his shaky relations with the ultra-Orthodox parties. The party believes they will go head to head with Netanyahu. Lapid has even quarreled in the Knesset plenum in recent months more than once with Netanyahu – and has been declaring himself a government alternative.

Blue and white – advanced decomposition

Blue and white is the main victim of the election: polls predict only five seats. Each member of the disintegrating party is busy recalculating a route. Some want to replace Gantz because of the loss of confidence in his leadership and thus also refresh the party, and some MKs are squinting at other parties that have a future and new hope. Also, party officials claim that Gabi Ashkenazi is considering continuing his political path at this stage.

To be sure, Blue and White is not expected to continue in the current constellation, and if it continues anyway, it is likely to ally with another party. In any case, the party is trying to send a message that it was born to replace the government, and it is possible that following the election, it will indeed be the one to whose credit the credit that the government was actually replaced will be credited.

The common list – impossible together – impossible apart

In the joint list, there is an almost complete disconnect between the two camps: on the one hand Hadash, Ta’al and Balad, and on the other side of the fourth side of the list, Chairman of RAAM Mansour Abbas, who publicly cooperates with Netanyahu and the Likud.

There are reports that Ta’al chairman Ahmad Tibi is trying to mediate between Hadash chairman Ayman Odeh and Abbas, but the gaps are large. As for Abbas, he also has no problem running separately from the joint list, which even then would have preferred to get rid of. However, according to polls in the Arab sector, there is dissatisfaction with the list and its representatives in the Knesset, along with a great erosion in voter confidence, which is reflected in the decline in the number of seats in the polls.

The in-depth surveys conducted in the sector have found that any split in the list and running in an independent framework will cause the Arab electorate to “punish” the Arab parties, and some may not pass the blocking percentage at all.

Yisrael Beiteinu – in front of Netanyahu and the ultra-Orthodox

Avigdor Lieberman is trying to find a way to overthrow Netanyahu. Recently, Saar, Lapid and Bennett proposed joining forces and establishing one bloc that would block Netanyahu from becoming prime minister. The party, which has won six or seven seats in recent polls, will continue the anti-Haredi line in the upcoming elections. Only yesterday, Lieberman tweeted on his Twitter account, referring to the ultra-Orthodox demonstration in Jerusalem, and wrote: “When they want to enlist – they know how to do it.”

Meretz – left – or to the center?

Meretz is one of the only two parties that remains democratic, and holds elections among party functionaries (along with the Likud). It is estimated that in the run-up to the upcoming elections, the party will hold primaries for the presidency of the list and the Knesset.

In the party, there is an internal discussion between the proponents of a Jewish-Arab partnership and a left-wing ideology, and the second camp that pulls in the direction of the political center. Maj. Gen. (Res.) Yair Golan, who joined the party, leads the line of attraction to the center, compared to Tamar Zandberg, who represents the desire to differentiate from the center parties and emphasize ideological messages of the traditional left.

The work – the battle for resuscitation begins

In view of Amir Peretz’s resignation from the Labor leadership, the party began to deal with possible candidates to replace him. The most prominent names at the moment are Tel Aviv-Yafo Mayor Ron Huldai, Justice Minister Avi Nissenkorn, former Chief of Staff Gadi Izenkot and Maj. Gen. (Res.) Amos Yadlin. In addition, Minister Itzik Shmuli and MK Merav Michaeli may also run for Labor. , Which will try to embark on a new path after the shock following Peretz’s announcement.

Ofer Shelach’s Party – Evaluation: Try to connect

Yesterday, Ofer Shelach announced the departure of the Yesh Atid party after nine years. Shelach hopes to “renew the face of the center-left,” as he calls it.

Estimates in the political system are that this is a split for the purpose of later joining other candidates from the center-left, such as Ron Huldai, Avi Nissenkorn and others.

Reminder: Shelach wanted to hold primaries in a bad future and was rejected by the head of the Lapid party, and so, after many years of close friendships with Yair Lapid, their paths diverge.

Participating in the preparation of the article: Daniel Roth-Avnery, Daniel Sirioti and Yuri Yalon