The 1918 pandemic provides a warning story for the future potential of COVID-19, says a researcher from Michigan State University.
After a decade of studying the flu virus that killed about 15,000 residents in Michigan, Siddharth Chandra, a professor at James Madison College at MSU, saw his research come to life as he watched the spread of COVID-19 pandemics.
“It was so surreal,” said Chandra, who has a polite career in epidemiology and biostatistics. “Suddenly, I was living my research.”
Chandra ‘s research is published in the American Journal of Public Health with co-authors Julia Christensen, a graduate of James Madison College; Madhur Chandra, Chief Community Epidemiologist with the Ingham County Department of Health and a graduate of the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at MSU; and Nigel Paneth, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics and pediatrics at MSU.
Using data on flu and mortality on Michigan from 1918-1920, Chandra identified four distinct waves. The first major peak was in March 1918. “After a second spike in cases in October 1918, the governor banned nationwide public gatherings,” Chandra said. “Just like the restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic.”
After three weeks, the number of cases decreased and the ban was lifted, which led to another peak in December 1918. “The ban did not stop the spread of flu. It delayed the spike in cases. , “he said.
Chandra will map the data showing the peaks and spikes in cases from October 1918 and December 1918 and monitor the growth of the flu virus case by county over time. In October, the highest numbers of counties were in the south of the state and near the Mackinac Strait but by December, the highest numbers of cases were in the heart of the state.
The most remarkable piece of data came 18 months later in February 1920, when a state explosion of cases created a huge spike even larger than the one in October 1918. For Chandra, it is a learned measure of the causes. for this delayed increase.
Assuming it was the only influenza virus, World War I ended in 1918 and the men were returning home to their families. We had a mobile agent who brought the virus home to family members, who explained the rise in cases among children and the elderly. “
Siddharth Chandra, Professor, James Madison College, Michigan State University
Unfortunately, there is no way to prove this, Chandra noted. “We needed samples from patients in 1920 from across the state. Then, we had to compare those with samples from patients in 1918 from across the state, and that’s unlikely to happen. “
The weather may also have been a factor as cool temperatures with low humidity provide the best conditions for the virus to survive and spread. Another feature that participated was the absence of vaccination.
“In 1918, there was no hope for vaccination. In 2021, we have a vaccine available,” he said.
One of the key insights from the 1918 pandemic that will inform the public health response to the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic is the number of people susceptible to the virus. This means that it is possible for a spike to occur as of February 1920 in late 2021 or early 2022.
“So many people will still be vulnerable until they get the vaccine,” Chandra said. More than 200 million of us are still walking around susceptible to the virus, including myself. “
Source:
Michigan State University