TEN MILLION patients on NHS waiting lists: One in six could wait for treatment

NHS waiting lists could be over ten million by April – with one in six people in England in need of treatment, a report warns.

Researchers claim that the pandemic turned the NHS into a ‘National Covid Service’, with six million fewer referrals in 2020 than 2019.

Health workers are now forced to rise from pent-up demand when locking loops are reduced in the coming weeks.

The waiting list could rise from 4.52million at the end of December to tens of millions by April, modeled by Reform think tank and data analytics firm Edge Health recommends.

An increase in demand after the NHS waiting list lockout could rise from 4.52million at the end of December to tenmillion by April, research suggests.  Pictured: An ambulance queue outside the Royal London Hospital in January

An increase in demand after the NHS waiting list lockout could rise from 4.52million at the end of December to tenmillion by April, research suggests. Pictured: An ambulance queue outside the Royal London Hospital in January

The number waiting on the list for more than a year is expected to be 12,000 percent higher by April than in March last year.

Health charities and the Royal College of Surgeons last night warned that patients against the ‘gloomy reality’ of long waits for ‘years to come’.

Report of the reform in numbers

  • Six million fewer referrals in 2020 than 2019;
  • The waiting list could rise to 4.5million in December to 10million by April
  • The number waiting on the list for more than a year could rise by 12,000 per cent by April, compared with March last year
  • If diagnostic tests and treatment delays are postponed, an additional 1,660 deaths could result from lung cancer alone

Patients delayed seeking care because they heeded the Government’s calls to ‘stay at home, protect the NHS’ or were afraid of catching the virus at their GP surgery or hospital.

At the same time, the NHS delayed some non-emergency operations to free staff and beds for Covid cases.

Experts fear that some people may see their condition deteriorate to a point where it can no longer be treated effectively, leading to death or permanent disability.

It includes those with cancer, heart disease and mental health issues. The delay could result in an additional 1,660 lung cancer deaths, the What Next For The NHS report claims.

The NHS worked hard to resume services over the summer but had to suspend some non-emergency care over the winter as it struggled to cope. another wave.

The delay has led to an increase in people waiting more than a year for treatment, with a year or more waiting already up 7,139 per cent from December, the most recent month for which data is available.

Patients should be seen within 18 weeks of being sent to hospital for treatment.

Researchers describe their estimates as ‘conservative’ as they do not describe methods that were discontinued this month and last year.

Eleonora Harwich, director of research at Reform and co-author, said: ‘We can never be the equivalent of a “National Covid Service” again. This is a systemic problem and does not detract from the heroic effort of NHS staff fighting Covid-19.

However, stopping so much non-Covid care means that patients suffer from more serious illnesses or health disabilities, and some die prematurely. ‘

Pictured: a queue of people outside the Patient Department at Basildon and Thurrock hospital in southwest Essex, east of England, on January 1, 2021

Pictured: a queue of people outside the Patient Department at Basildon and Thurrock hospital in southwest Essex, east of England, on January 1, 2021

Reform is concerned that the NHS did not properly use private providers to deliver non-Covid care while fighting the pandemic. They are now urging NHS England to force Trusts to publish their ‘waiting list recovery plans’, which set out how the capacity of the independent sector will be harnessed.

Those who do not make full use of this additional capacity or resources such as MRI devices to reduce the care background are ‘negligent’, the fingerprint says.

He wants the NHS to open community screening centers for cancer, heart disease and other illnesses.

Those most in need of care should be identified and prioritized, he adds. The think tank is concerned that the Health and Social Care White Paper presented by the Health Secretary last week does not address the balloon waiting list or the need to increase capacity.

Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients’ Association, said: ‘The hard reality facing patients is that waiting lists will be long for years to come.’

Professor Neil Mortensen, President of the Royal College of Surgeons, agreed that ‘major surgery’ could be as high as ten million.

Professor Stephen Powis, NHS national medical director, said: ‘The NHS has never been just a Covid service – for every Covid patient in hospital, the NHS treats three for other illnesses – and it is clearly a disadvantage to the work of our staff who have continued to run services throughout the pandemic to suggest otherwise. ‘

What experts have said before about the health effects of locking

Nearly 75,000 people could die from non-Covid causes as a result of a lockdown, official figures expected last year.

The preliminary research was presented to the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) in July.

The document revealed that 16,000 people died as a result of the riots in hospitals and care homes in March and April alone.

He estimates that a further 26,000 people will lose their lives within a year if people stay away from A&E and the problems in social care persist.

And a further 31,900 could die over the next five years as a result of missed cancer studies, postponed operations and the impact of the economic downturn.

The estimates, drawn up by civil servants at the Department of Health, the Office for National Statistics and the Home Office, were presented to Sage at a meeting on 15 July.

The documents confirmed that if nothing was done to stop the spread of the virus in March, 400,000 people could have died from Covid.

And if the NHS had gone overboard, this figure might have risen to 1.4 million. But they understood that the constraints had a huge unexpected impact.

The document said: ‘We estimate that changes in emergency care could account for an additional 6,000 deaths in March and April 2020. If emergency care in hospitals remains low for 12 months,’ that could lead to an additional 10,000 deaths. ‘

He said: ‘We estimate that there were around 10,000 non-Covid-19 household residents in March and April 2020 … there could be a further 16,000 non-Covid-19 deaths over 12 months in care home residents. ”

In the long run, officials estimate 12,500 deaths over five years are the result of postponed work.

The impact on GP services could lead to 1,400 deaths over five years from cancer alone. The actual impact will be much higher, they said, but they have not been able to model the impact on any disease field other than cancer.

Officials said locking down will bring some reductions in deaths. Better air quality, fewer road accidents and fewer childhood infections will reduce overall deaths by about 1,000 over a year, they estimated.

And another 4,000 lives will be saved thanks to ‘healthier lifestyles in the short term’.

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