In his speech this week at the Institute for National Security Studies, Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi chose to position himself as Israel’s key pioneer in conveying poignant messages to Joe Biden’s new administration in the United States, ahead of a possible nuclear deal with Iran. The timing of the statements is unclear, especially when even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chooses, at least at the public level, a much more cautious line with the new government. The chief of staff’s remarks also drew criticism due to the fact that they could be perceived as a defiance towards the US administration.
Kochavi, in fact, flooded the public with what is usually conducted in a sensitive and discreet internal discourse within the defense establishment, in cross-organizational discussions between the IDF, the Ministry of Defense, the Mossad and the National Security Council, until an orderly presentation to cabinet ministers. . Only then should the dialogue with US government representatives and IDF counterparts at the top of the US military should take place. This time it was all broadcast live, long before even the exploratory phase between governments on this issue began. Kochavi, who abstains almost completely from any reference to issues dealing with Israeli society, has deviated greatly from the boundaries of the sector on the American issue.
The military, as a professional echelon, is not supposed to determine and lead the public political line. He is an advisory echelon that should present his position honestly to the political echelon and recommend even in the event of an argument or disagreement with the prime minister and cabinet ministers, and after making decisions he should align with the guidelines of the political echelon. Even when the Chief of Staff believes that his positions are in line with those of the Prime Minister regarding the possible renewal of negotiations for a new nuclear agreement, a sensitive and so deep matter should be pursued strategically after formulating policy and official position that should pass through cabinet decisions and not publicly. The Chief of Staff at a sensitive political time.
In his speech, Kochavi clarified that a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement would be a bad and wrong thing to do. So far this has been the familiar and accepted position of Israel for several years, and it is likely that if it had been said alone – it would not have provoked the debate around his words. This is a figure that is in complete consensus at the top of Israel’s political and security policy, and this position is well known to Biden’s people as well. But when the chief of staff added to the equation that even an improved agreement is bad, he seems to have sent a message to the Americans that for Israel only the possibilities of continuing the policy of sanctions or military action are on the table.
It is possible that in the end, this is the position that Israel will officially present to the Americans, but as stated, it is not the chief of staff’s job to convey the message. It is not clear how to speak out against an improved agreement, if it is not known at all and if there are lessons learned from the previous agreement Perhaps it is even better for Israel than the situation it has been in the past year, in which Iran is grossly violating what is left of the agreement and moving towards the nuclear program.
Kochavi as chief of staff signed, among other things, an assessment by the National Security Agency that Iran did not violate the restrictions imposed on it until the United States withdrew from the agreement. In addition, the defense establishment was able to honestly point out that along with the benefits of US pressure on Iran, In a reality without an agreement, in which Iran continues to advance in its nuclear program. In fact, the well-known military position of the Chief of Staff, presented to the political echelon, did not oppose the reality of a return to the agreement, as long as it was an improved agreement that would prevent Iran from achieving military nuclear capability.
It can be estimated that in the near future it will be said on behalf of military officials that perhaps things were not properly understood and given a wrong interpretation. But in the way they were presented, without providing the big picture and leaving question marks as well, there were also those who analyzed his remarks as a series of orders to the new American administration, as if he were the one receiving the financial aid from Israel.
Thanks to his good and long-standing acquaintance with the American army, Kochavi knows full well that Israel is not alone, even in a scenario that seems very far at the moment of attacking the nuclear facilities in Iran. Israel will not operate independently without cooperation with the Americans: intelligence, weapons, and perhaps even more so – in joint action and an international diplomatic umbrella for Israel.
Up to this point it is already clear that Biden will strive to resume negotiations. Israel must act to ensure that the mistakes of the previous nuclear agreement are not repeated. It is not opposing speeches by the chief of staff or any other factor in Israel that will bring about change and influence. The excellent collaborations with senior figures in the US military and the Pentagon are precisely the ones that may make the difference, and sometimes even bridge the parties in case of deep arguments and disagreements.
And maybe this is the budget?
The Iranian issue also came up in Kochavi’s speech in the context of a budget increase for the defense establishment. Despite its shortcomings, the perforated nuclear deal has allowed the defense establishment to invest less resources in preparing a military option to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and divert the funds that have been freed up for other operational needs. Now the reality is changing, and the chief of staff, for obvious reasons, also needs to prepare credible operational plans for action in Iran.
The price tag the chief of staff is asking for is very heavy – over NIS 3 billion extra. This request is critical, although there is a high probability that despite the complex political situation, this money will pass, especially given the fact that Netanyahu supports increasing the defense budget. The Ministry of Finance does say that a budgetary source can be found, only this time, in the midst of an acute economic-health crisis, the only source is other government ministries, whose budgets have shrunk in any case due to the situation.
One can understand the plight of the chief of staff and the defense establishment. In a reality where there is no budget for the state and forward planning is very limited, it is very difficult to run an army effectively. The IDF, like other government ministries, pays a heavy price for political chaos and utter paralysis.
The military says in the past two years they have cut wherever possible in order to divert resources to operational needs. “Cannons before socks” – the chief of staff calls it. The Treasury, by the way, believes that this is far from enough. Either way, in the days of Corona and an acute economic and political crisis, a chief of staff’s speech aimed at convincing the public why today “I need an extra budget, it will be difficult to rake in sympathy – even if it is carried out by the most eloquent speaker in the army in recent years. And yes, there is a certain degree of disconnection from what is happening in Israeli society, so right now Demand additional funds.