Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is not going anywhere. He withstood the military threat of ten years of war and even as the country suffered the worst food and economic crisis in recent months, it has regained power.
Some in the West had hoped that economic pressure, exacerbated by sanctions, would put an end to their own Alawite community, but the discontent did not end with a second revolution. mach.
Syrian life in a controlled area, however, has deteriorated dramatically. Queues outside bakers and petrol stations have become the new norm while electricity shortages have adversely affected local businesses and exacerbated unemployment.
Ahmad and his brother take turns queuing outside a bakery in Damascus to buy subsidized bread.
“Today was my turn and, without looking at you, I stood in line for six hours again,” Ahmad said. “Electricity, we’ve completely forgotten about it. Our uncle who is tailor has closed his shop because he can’t work with this three hours, five hours from the electricity supply. “
The Syrian economy is in tatters. Syrians are struggling with hyperinflation, food shortages and endless unemployment in sight.
Last year, when Lebanon went bankrupt, many Syrians who put their money in Lebanese banks also lost their savings. The plight increased as the price of bread rose, the United States imposed regional sanctions, and Russia cut cuts in wheat exports to maintain domestic supply due to the pandemic of coronavirus.
Indigenous Syrians warm up around a camp fire in northern Aleppo [File: Mahmoud Hassano/Reuters]Scraped earth tools
Syrians like Ahmad accuse the lion’s share of President al-Assad’s relentless bombing of the country, including vital infrastructure such as farm machinery and power stations and, as far as possible. agriculture going, his literal inventions put an end to land in fragile areas. However, they are also responsible for Russia and the US reducing the crisis.
Russia supported the Syrian government in the armed conflict while the US criticized al-Assad. But both policies have added to people’s suffering.
Until 2008, Syria exported wheat to neighboring countries. The suitability of grain was a cornerstone of the Hafez al-Assad regime and worked on the basis that if the population was well fed it would remain strong. Syria grew four million tons (3.6 million tons) of wheat in a good year.
But a thirst in 2008 and a ten-year civil war turned Syria into a wheat importer. As production halved, the government turned to Russia – the world’s largest alliance and grain exporter. Russia offered 100,000 tons of aid, but no more. The rest had to be bought or exchanged for something in return from Syria.
Bassam Barabandi, a Syrian diplomatic representative currently living in the U.S. as a refugee, said the Syrian government had no more money and so offered the country’s facilities to Russia.
“Russia opened a line of credit to the regime to buy grain with a sovereign promise and as a result they opened up oil. [reserves] and phosphate mines, ”Barabandi said.
According to the Syrian Report, a regular study of the country’s economy, Syria has to import 1.1 million tons (one million tons) of wheat annually to meet its requirements, most of which used to come from Russia. . But in 2020, Russia reduced its supply. It is not yet clear how much he was exporting but he said total wheat imports fell by half.
This year there has been plenty of rain but the government still needs to bring in more to feed everyone. Russia could have come forward but so far it has not.
An additional reason for the wheat shortage is that northeastern Syria, the country ‘s bread basket that met 60 percent of the total requirement, is controlled by Kurdish allies in Washington.
Even though U.S. sanctions have theoretically allowed grain trade to continue, in practice the exemptions do not always work as advertised.
Aron Lund, a researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Organization (FOI), said that while U.S. sanctions allow certain types of trade, such as food and humanitarian aid, over-compliance often prevents banks , insurers and shipping companies.
“Syria is a small market and it is simply not worth risking a U.S. government lawsuit,” Lund said.
In addition, U.S. sanctions on oil trade affect other critical sectors.
“By restricting Syria’s fuel supply through oil trade sanctions and by supporting Kurdish control over eastern oil fields, the United States will hurt the Syrian economy as a whole,” Lund said. “Gasoline tanks need to pay for war, but farmers also need to run their tractors, factories need electricity, and civilians on both sides of the war depend on cars, buses and trucks to be able to access people and goods. to deliver. “
Prices up 30 percent
Joshua Landis is a US-based Syrian expert who heads the center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Oklahoma and is married to a Syrian woman. He said it was naive to think that sanctions will only affect al-Assad and its harms.
“I spoke to my brother-in-law,” he said. “His small plastic factory can’t run most of the time because electricity is cut off for five hours. He’s having trouble getting fuel for his generator. , which raises the price far above electricity costs.Because of inflation, prices change every day so that it cannot be sure that contracts it signs today will make money tomorrow. . “
“Foreign NGOs estimate that the prices of most daily products have gone up 30 percent due to sanctions,” Landis said.
Opinions about the impact of sanctions on the Syrian people are deeply divided, however.
Benin Scheller, head of the Middle East and North Africa region at Heinrich Böll Stiftung, said that while sanctions against Syria’s central bank could prevent international companies from trading with Syria, it could he asked his relatives for help.
“Because the regime is not remote but has powerful supporters – most of Russia – it could turn to them for goods that cannot be obtained,” she told Al Jazeera. Armed from Russia it is not impossible for sanctions to stop Russia from delivering civilian items. “
U.S. sanctions are intended to block the reconstruction of Syria and force al-Assad to carry out meaningful political reforms. Europe, too, has suspended support for Syria’s reconstruction because it sees reconstruction money as the only lever it has left over the regime to change its behavior. But critics challenge his stance, saying reconstruction is a matter for the welfare of citizens, as long as the West has not achieved its stated goal by refusing to allow it. .
The International Crisis Group has long advocated a “gradual incentive approach” – the gradual lifting of sanctions and the gradual distribution of reconstruction funds in exchange for political reforms. .
Maybe he has a point. Authors, after all, had never given up power for the well-being of their people.
As US President Joe Biden takes over in Washington he has a difficult and unpleasant choice to make. If it reduces sanctions and allows gradual reconstruction, Syria will recover economically but some of that money would certainly be cut off by the government.
“Balancing civilian suffering against pressure on the regime is a political choice,” Lund spoke. “But by pretending how you can destroy the economic base of the regime without hurting ordinary Syrians at the same time – that’s dumb and dishonest. “