How did we vote in the elections to the 24th Knesset, compared to the previous elections? Rafi Smith, director of the Smith Institute, conducted a special survey on Election Day in which 1,740 people were interviewed as a representative sample of the adult Jewish population who voted on Election Day.
The survey was conducted in a combination of telephone interviews and an Internet panel and its purpose was to examine how the Israeli public changed its vote compared to the previous elections – the so-called ‘vote transitions’.
The interviews were conducted during Election Day from 12 until the polling station closes. The sampling error is 2.4.
So what do the findings show?
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First, what happened to the Likud?
About 74.5% of Likud voters in the March 20 elections once again voted for the Likud, about 1,00,700 votes. Equivalent to 28 seats.
7.2% of Likud voters on March 20 passed and voted for a new hope led by Saar – about 97,000 votes. Equivalent to about 2.7 seats.
6.6% of Likud voters in March 20 passed and voted for the right, led by Bennett, about 89,000 votes. Equivalent to about 2.4 seats. On the other hand, a little more than 20,000 who voted for the right in the last election voted for the Likud this time, so in practice the Likud “lost” about 2 seats to the right.
4.5% of Likud voters on March 20 went to vote for “religious Zionism” led by Smutritz, about 61,000 votes equivalent to 1.7 seats.
The Likud has lost another 50,000 votes for blue-and-white and there is a future.
The election data show that the Likud gave up a bloc “in favor of Netanyahu” that was accepted as a mandate in the Arab sector.
How did blue-and-white voters vote?
The party led by Gantz disbanded and separately ran Mish Atid led by Lapid. Well – 44.6% of blue and white voters in the previous election this time voted for Lapid – about 543,000 votes, equivalent – to almost 15 seats (they constitute 83% of voters have a future today).
Another interesting finding is that 19.4% of blue and white voters a year ago voted this time for Bnei Gantz (excluding Yair Lapid) about 236,000 votes equivalent to 6.4 seats (they constitute about 80% of his supporters today). That is, almost 1 in 5 who voted for Gantz and Lapid voted for Gantz this time only.
11.1% of “blue and white” voters in March 20 passed and voted for Gideon Saar – 134,200 votes and the equivalent of 3.7 seats per Saar.
About 36,000 votes went from a white brush to “Yisrael Beiteinu” – equivalent to a mandate.
About 24,000 votes went from a white brush to the right led by Bennett – equivalent to two-thirds of the seats.
Part of the success of the Labor Party stems from the fact that about 112,000 blue and white voters passed and this time voted for the Labor Party, equivalent to about 3 seats (constituting about 42% of the Labor Party voters).
About 42,000 votes went from “blue and white” to the Likud – a little more than a mandate.
How did the votes of the Labor-Meretz party split?
43% of those who voted for the party a year ago this time voted for the Labor Party led by Merav Michaeli 115,000 votes, equivalent to about 3.1 seats (constituting about 46% of the party’s voters today).
Another 19,000 votes were transferred from Labor-Meretz on March 20 to “Blue and White,” equivalent to half a seat.
Meretz, which ran separately from Labor – received 38% of the Labor-Meretz vote a year ago – 101,000 votes – equivalent to 2.8 seats.
And what did right-wing voters do?
This time, the party competed separately from Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smutrich, of which it was a year ago.
51% of those who voted for the party a year ago voted for it again when it is headed by Bennett – equivalent to 123,000 votes, which is 3.3 seats.
About a third passed and voted for religious Zionism. This is 80,000 votes – equivalent to 2.2 seats.
The data also show that religious Zionism received support from “Jewish power” voters in the last election (the number of cases is small) and also among the ultra-Orthodox sector, a total of over 60,000 votes, equivalent to 1.5 seats.
And what about the ultra-Orthodox parties?
Maintained mainly their power in the seats, with 86% of Shas voters voting for it again and about 82% of Torah Judaism voters voting for their party again.
And did the voters return to Yisrael Beiteinu?
A little less than 60% of its voters a year ago voted for it again – about 145,000 votes, almost 4 seats.
18% went to vote for Gideon Saar, about 47,500 votes equivalent to 1.3 seats, while 11.7% went to vote for Bennett’s right – 30,500 votes. A little less than a mandate.
In the poll, voters were asked: When did you finally decide which party to vote for?
19% – one in 5 clouds that decided today (at the polls or on the way to the polls) – the highest percentage in all the polls we conducted in the last 3 election campaigns.
11% indicated in the last two to three days.
7% a week ago.
8% about two to three weeks ago.
55% two to three months ago.
26% of blue and white voters indicated that they had finally decided to support the party on election day, illustrating the momentum the party has received in recent days, while another 24% indicated that they have decided in the last two or three days.
31% of Labor voters decided to support it definitively on Election Day and another 14% in the last two or three days. This also illustrates what the party received in the end.
Regarding Meretz – 21% of its voters decided on election day to support it and another 15% in the last two or three days.
Among Likud voters, only 7% finally decided to vote for it on Election Day and another 4.5% in the last two or three days (lower than average).
Among religious Zionist voters, 14% made a final decision on election day and 10% in the last two or three days.
Among voters there is a future 16% finally decided on election day and 13% in the last two or three days.