England’s main streets could lose up to 400,000 sales jobs as more people work from home and shop online after a pandemic spread of coronavirus, according to a report, with affluent cities in the south among the most vulnerable.
Of the 109 towns and cities surveyed by accounting firm KPMG, Bracknell in the London travel zone was considered to be at greatest risk of experiencing the biggest declines in retail earnings as share of local economic activity.
An increase in remote operation and online shopping is expected to be one of the lasting legacies of the pandemic. However, the report said that some places would record a greater decline in passenger numbers than others, and that this would accelerate the cessation of the purchase of high street shops in those places.
According to the research, up to 27.4% of jobs were expected to be in Bracknell – home to major technology companies including Fujitsu and Dell, and a popular center for office workers in London – still made from home, even after physical distance measures have been slowed down.
KPMG said this would hit retailers in the city of Berkshire a heavy blow as it would reduce passenger numbers, and lose as many as 1,505 jobs, or about 38% of the local sales segment.
Similar percentages in cities included Basingstoke, Hemel Hempstead, Warrington and Guildford, which KPMG was among the most vulnerable places in England for job losses on the high street.
In a warning to the government, KPMG said the shifting trends caused by the pandemic would have a far-reaching impact on Boris Johnson’s level agenda, which has so far focused on weaker local economies in the middle country and northern England.
Recognizing that some of the most vulnerable areas of Covid’s decline were in the traditionally affluent southeast, the company said the balance shifted so that these areas needed to do more. to refocus their local economies in the future.
However, these areas tend to have more people working from home as there are more jobs in higher paid sectors of the economy where remote work is easier, such as in IT and finance.
According to KPMG, cities such as Burnley, Bradford and Huddersfield rank within the least affected by the crisis, partly because fewer jobs can be created in the places to do that at a distance.
While this could protect retail earnings, many towns at the heart of the rate hike were struggling ahead of the pandemic so they would still need extra support in the wake of the crisis. .
Some commentators have also suggested that increasing homework may help towns and cities emerge more strongly from the pandemic, as fewer people may need to travel to cities such as London, Birmingham and Manchester.
So far during the pandemic, central London has won the case largely due to the dramatic decline in passenger numbers. The capital’s population is set to fall for the first time since 1988 this year, as more people move to the peripheral areas.
However, KPMG said the sales sector in cities like London would remain stable, as its cultural facilities would attract visitors after resting in Covid ‘s constraints, helping to reduce a blow from fewer passengers.
The most vulnerable areas, he said, had the largest number of domestic workers and few cultural assets – such as sports centers, museums and arts centers, as well as pubs, cafes and restaurants.
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According to the report, London, Liverpool, Burnley and Birmingham were the most stable in terms of the economic impact of more homework and online shopping.
Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG in the UK, said: “As people travel less for work or shopping, cities and towns will need other offers to fill vacancies and to empower people. attract to the area as we hope to leave the pandemic. late sometime this year.
“The main streets need to be re-enacted as cultural and leisure hubs that will be magnets for businesses and jobs that have the potential to transform less affluent areas.”
Top 10 most vulnerable places after Covid
1 Bracknell
2 Hemel Hempstead
3 Basingstoke
4 Warrington
5 Guildford
6 Swindon
7 Watford
8 Slough
9 Stockport
10 Basildon