Studios will be experimenting with solution models what that means for film piracy

2021 will be a very different year for the film theater industry. Studios, hoping to find ways to turn a profit on big budget blockbusters, has turned to new ways to release movies.

For Warner Bros., the pandemic led its major AT&T company to decide to release all of their films in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day. Universal, which is owned by Comcast, has chosen to enter into contracts with individual theaters to shorten the time their films have to stay in theaters before they move to a video on demand.

Then there are those like Disney who, for the most part, have postponed most of their movies until 2021 and have put a handful on their own streaming service.

However, box office analysts aren’t the only ones keeping a close eye on how these films perform next year. Pirate experts are very much looking forward to how these new detection methods will affect illegal flows.

“As a data science researcher, this is a dream come true,” said Brett Danaher, professor of entertainment analysis and data science at Chapman University. “It’s a good test.”

Going into 2021, pirate experts told CNBC that they have theories about how pirates deal with these various models, but are not entirely sure what will happen.

For one, piracy is a difficult thing to follow. Experts can track some downloads from major piracy websites, but once that file is downloaded, it can be distributed and streamed to thousands of other viewers privately.

That’s also why experts provide a range of what piracy could cost the U.S. economy, rather than a strong number. Last year, the Center for Global Innovation Policy estimated that online piracy worldwide cost between $ 29.9 billion and $ 71 billion in lost revenue each year.

But there is a lot to learn from pirate people. Looking at the data, experts like Andy Chatterley, CEO and co-founder of MUSO, a global authority on digital piracy, can provide insights to media companies around the world.

For one, Chatterley noted that the more commotion around an obstacle, the more piracy he will see. Movies that have large marketing campaigns, increased demand from strong fans and a lot of media distribution will generate more illegal online downloads.

MUSO data also suggests that piracy may occur when higher quality versions are available on pirate sites. For example, “Bad Boys for Life” hit theaters in January and saw “moderate” piracy, Chatterley said. However, when it became available on video on demand in mid-March, there was a huge spike in online piracy.

Disney ‘s “Mulan,” on the other hand, saw an immediate spike in its release day and then a time reduction.

“The piracy was loaded with a face,” Chatterley said. “However, the piracy may not have been bigger or smaller.”

For companies like AT&T that release high-quality versions of movies on the first day, there are some ways to prevent piracy. For example, two weeks before “Wonder Woman 1984” appeared in North America in theaters and on HBO Max, the film was released internationally.

This allowed listeners to see the film in theaters first before a high-quality copy was placed on pirate websites. This is especially important as HBO Max is currently only a domestic product.

“Of course, you have people who are always going to be pirates,” said Michael Smith, professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University. “The people who care about you are the people who would have bought your content legally but found it [piracy] more convenient. “

Smith said most pirates do so because they have no other legal way to eat fruit. If those viewers had been offered an easier legal means, they would have paid to see the film.

While online piracy can have a devastating financial impact on media companies, the data experts that these companies collect can help determine what their audience wants to watch. Data from organizations like MUSO can tell companies which movies or TV shows they should buy or license either at home or to international locations.

For example, the EU Intellectual Property Office ruled that “The Mummy” had been unfairly plundered in Spain and the TV show “South Park” was a popular illegal download in Finland.

This information tells Universal that it may want “The Mummy” to be more widely available in Spain and Viacom that it may want to make a deal with a Finnish streaming service.

As Danaher said, 2021 is going to be a big test for the industry when it comes to piracy. This is the first time that several different solution strategies will occur simultaneously and for a long time.

Even if some titles are more popular than others, the data should include trends that show how people are spending their entertainment.

As in the previous year, it will be difficult for experts to determine a clear financial impact, especially since the pandemic will be similar to how people choose to watch certain films. Those who can’t go to movie theaters can choose to stream legally when they’re available, but can opt for illegal alternatives to major films instead.

Moreover, with mainstream on-demand video becoming an earlier-than-usual buying option, it may not be immediately clear whether on-demand buying or piracy is cannibalizing revenue. theater.

“Unfortunately, I can’t tell you who will win the horse race,” Danaher said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the principal company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.