A man in a breathing mask drives a car while holding a steering wheel. Concept of Attention Virus
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At this time last year experts said that the global automotive market in 2020 would reverse the slow trend seen since 2017, and then look at what happened.
Global car and SUV sales had been steadily rebounding from the high of 94.3 million in 2017, but then dipped around 16% to 76.5 million in 2020, according to IHS Markit
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So any attempt at predicting how the industry will thrive in 2021 may have a skeptical audience, and anyone who says what will happen later in the time to coming to be seen as a hero or a fool.
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That didn’t stop viewers from doing so well. Step forward one of the most successful IHS Markit, and this despite many conventional lockouts due to the pandemic across western Europe and the US suggests there is still a way out to go before it diminishes.
Next year the global automotive market will move 9% to 83.4 million, carrying a further 5% in 2022 to 86.9 million and then another strong 4% in 2023 to 89.7 million. In western and central Europe sales will recover 11.1% in 2021 to 15.25 million, moving up to 16.58 million in 2023, IHS Markit said.
Fitch Solutions agrees with this overall pace of development, with global sales also up 9.0% to 83.7 million in 2021 and believing that Europe is the top player in 2021.
“Europe is the best performing region in 2021 with projected sales growth of 10.8%. This shows that Europe is recovering from not only an estimated 18% decline in 2020, but also a weak year in 2019 with growth of just 0.4%, ”said Fitch Solutions in report.
“Much of this recovery is due to the coordinated effort of EU member states to mobilize regional recovery from pandemics through measures such as the EU Recovery Fund and EU Green Planning. This differs from North America where we are forecasting the lowest growth rate of just 5.9% in 2021, ”said Fitch Solutions.
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According to the LMC Automotive forecast, the crash in global car sales earlier in the year and the subsequent powerful recovery, is going well for the industry, especially since China , the largest market in the world, is leading the way. Also, the position of the coronavirus has reversed in favor of the car due to its private, sealed and protected nature from contact with the public.
“There is a renewed commitment to owning and driving a car, at least as long as the virus remains a threat,” LMC Auto said in a report.
But ABI Research of Oyster Bay, New York, feels a cautious note.
“In the first half of 2020 the market for new vehicles entered, contracting around 70%. COVID-19 and the steps taken to keep the spread of the virus at bay have dealt a double blow to the already disrupting car market, disrupting supply chains and disrupting the industry selling a brick-and-mortar environment on which he relies heavily, ”ABI Research said.
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“Many (manufacturers) said they had returned to growth in the 3rd a quarter as demand balanced from the first half, manifested in a summer period that saw many governments lift restrictions and allow retailers to self-open again. Moving into 2021, however, the car industry should not expect a return to new vehicle sales numbers in recent years. Market size is expected to remain under control until 2024 with the prospect of repeated locks, long-term remote working and a gloomy macroeconomic outlook, ”said ABI Research.