The Premier League returns to activity this coming weekend and even if it seems to you that the championship fight is taking a very clear direction, there is a lot to fight for this season – the title of top scorer for example. Nikita Rokavica leads the table with genius, but is he the most effective player in the league? Let the numbers answer the question.
So. We used two criteria to answer the question. First, we checked all the players who threatened the frame 20 times or more this season to understand how many threats they need in order to score a goal (we removed from the list Younes Melda who managed to move to Ghent during the break). The results are in front of you:
1. Anthony and Arn – Threats: 22; Goals: 6; Conqueror with all 3.66 kicks.
2. Nikita Rokavica – Threats: 49; Goals: 13; Conqueror with all 3.8 kicks.
3. Eliran Atar – Threats: 29; Goals: 6; Conqueror with every 4.8 kicks.
4. Kizito – Threats: 26; Goals: 5; Conqueror in all 5.2 kicks.
5. Lucio – Threats: 28; Goals: 5; Conqueror in every 5.6 kicks.
6. Yonatan Cohen – Threats: 45; Goals: 8; Conqueror with every 5.62 kicks.
7. Joshua – Threats: 36; Goals: 6; Conqueror with every 5.66 kicks.
8. Gabi Kanikovsky – Threats: 23; Gates: 4; Conqueror with every 5.75 kicks.
9. Marshall Ode – Threats: 30; Goals: 5; Conqueror in every 6 kicks.
10. Sagiv Yechezkel – Threats: 24; Gates: 4; Conqueror in every 6 kicks.
11. Liel worked – Threats: 24; Gates: 4; Conqueror in every 6 kicks.
12. Dolev Haziza – Threats: 32; Goals: 5; Conqueror in every 6.4 kicks.
13. Hanan Maman – Threats: 33; Goals: 5; Conqueror in every 6.6 kicks.
14. Law of David – Threats: 22; Goals: 3; Conqueror in all 7.3 kicks.
15. Charon Cherry – Threats: 46; Goals: 5; Conqueror in all 9.2 kicks.
16. Kwan Freiter – Threats: 20; Goals: 2; Conqueror in every 10 kicks.
17. Shlomi Azulai The connection – Threats: 32; Goals: 3; Conqueror with every 10.66 kicks.
18. Eugene will try – Threats: 32; Goals: 3; Conqueror with every 10.66 kicks.
19. Osama Khalayla – Threats: 36; Goals: 3; Conqueror in all 12 kicks.
20. Dan Bitton – Threats: 27; Goals: 2; Conqueror in all 13.5 kicks.
21. Gustavo Marmentini – Threats: 33; Goals: 2; Conqueror in all 16.5 kicks.
22. Omri Altman – Threats: 39; Goals: 2; Conqueror with all 19.5 kicks.
23. Assault Padida – Threats: 20; Gates: 1; Conqueror in every 20 kicks.
24. Amado Sokona – Threats: 27; Gates: 1; Conqueror in all 27 kicks.
25. Hamudi Canaan – Threats: 21; Goals: 0
26. Muhammad Abu Fani – Threats: 25; Goals: 0
27. Matthias Leowitz – Threats: 30; Goals: 0
According to this test, it seems that Warren needs the lowest number of threats in order to score while Rokvica is only second in the category, although he leads the table of goal scorers by a considerable margin. Jonathan Cohen is only in sixth place while Charon Shani, who is in second place in the league in goal threats, occupies all 9.2 of them only.
The second variable we will use is the XG (expected goals) index test. Brief explanation: The index examines the amount of goals expected for a player or team according to the quality of the situations they have reached and the probability that a certain threat will become a goal according to several variables including the type of delivery the player received, angle and distance of the kick and more. In other words: the XG indicates how many goals a particular player was supposed to score.
Therefore, we have placed the XG of those players from the list above alongside the amount of goals they have actually scored and the result is in front of you:
1. Rokvica – Exiles: 13; XG: 13.
2. Yonatan Cohen – Exiles: 8; XG: 8.
Khalaila – Exiles: 3; XG: 6.
4. Lucio – Exiles: 5; XG: 6.
5. Oda – Exiles: 5; XG: 5.
6. Sherry – Exiles: 5; XG: 4.9.
7. Altman – Exiles: 2; XG: 4.5.
8. Warren – Exiles: 6; XG: 4.4.
9. Atar – Exiles: 6; XG: 4.3.
10. Ezekiel – Exiles: 4; XG: 4.1.
11. David – Exiles: 3; XG: 4.1.
12. Kizito – Exiles: 5; XG: 3.9.
13. Firecracker – Exiles: 5; XG: 3.8.
14. I will try – Exiles: 3; XG: 3.6.
15. Dan Bitton – Exiles: 2; XG: 3.6.
16. Leujic – Exiles: 0; XG: 3.6.
17. Joshua – Exiles: 6; XG: 3.4.
18. Finance – Exiles: 5; XG: 3.1.
19. Abu Fani – Exiles: 0; XG: 2.8.
20. Sokona – Exiles: 1; XG: 2.7.
21. Marmentini – Exiles: 2; XG: 2.6.
22. Worked – Exiles: 4; XG: 2.6.
23. Knikowski – Exiles: 4; XG: 2.4.
24. Freighter – Exiles: 2; XG: 2.3.
25. Azoulay Contact – Exiles: 3; XG: 2.2.
26. Padida – Exiles: 1; XG: 1.77.
27. Canaan – Exiles: 0; XG: 0.76.
From this comparison it appears that Joshua is the player who holds the largest difference between the number of goals he has scored and those expected. That is: according to the quality of his threats to the goal, the Portuguese was supposed to score about three goals less than he actually scored – almost half of the goals. Rokvica and Yonatan Cohen scored the same number of their expected goals, while Leovich, for example, was supposed to score 3.6 goals and in practice did not find the net even once, as did Omri Altman, who scored only two goals, 2.5 less than he was supposed to score according to the quality of the situations he reached.
And will these data affect the identity of the king of goals? Vote in the poll >>>