As vaccination campaigns go up all over the world, the more advanced countries are starting to debate at the point where coronavirus restrictions can be prevented, even before full adult coverage is reached. In particular, some are questioning what restrictions can be lifted while only the elderly and the most vulnerable receive the vaccine.
In this discussion, there are four main considerations. The first issue is where to draw the line. Covid-19 laziness increases abruptly with age. Over 80s are several times more likely to die from coronavirus than people under the age of 50. All else being equal, this should mean that deaths fall dramatically once over 50s and vulnerable groups are being vaccinated, perhaps by 90 per cent or more, New statesman analysis from the UK shows. But some governments will be lured into easing restrictions when people over 60 or older receive 70 vaccines – which could put the health of millions at higher risk.
The second is hospital capacity. Across the pandemic, the toughness for many governments has been to prevent health care systems from overpowering large numbers of patients, in the worst case scenario on doctors critically testing patients and at best not being able to offer the best possible care. . Because the majority of patients with coronavirus are elderly and vulnerable, vaccination at these groups tends to significantly reduce hospital stress, even if the virus continues to circulate in humans. younger.
However, not all coronavirus patients are older or with comorbidities. Some of them are young and seemingly healthy, but nonetheless they are knocked down by the virus bad enough to go into hospital. Lifting restrictions if only a proportion of the population is still vaccinated could put significant pressure on the medical system. Some unnecessary jobs could be delayed, for example, which would have ongoing costs for patients and health care further down the line. He may also need more locks if the pressure on the hospital system becomes too hungry.
The third is the so-called “long Covid” risk and long-term effects of coronavirus. Long Covid is an extended form of the disease that is thought to affect up to a fifth of patients for weeks or months, with symptoms including extreme obesity, shortness of breath and headaches. Furthermore, since Covid-19 is only a year old, its long-term effects are not yet fully understood. There is little evidence of permanent heart or lung damage in some coronavirus-acquired patients. This would have significant long-term costs for individuals and health systems.
The fourth is the impact on the elderly and vulnerable who do not receive the vaccine. Even in countries that are less skeptical about vaccination, there will be some people in vulnerable groups who will not receive the vaccine and others who will miss imperfect government lists. If the virus continues to circulate in some parts of the population, without herd immunity – the term used by epidemiologists to protect against infection in a whole group, achieved through disease or vaccination – it is possible that Covid-19 could still be transmitted to vulnerable people who do not receive the vaccine, resulting in more deaths.
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So how can reducing the spread of coronavirus be balanced by the need to reopen economies? The safest option, according to the doctors and epidemiologists I spoke to, is to err on the side of caution and keep rules of social distance longer. Coronavirus is an emergency that has consistently shown tougher measures to be more successful in limiting the short-term and long-term effects of the disease. Covid over time can be reduced to a risk that could be treated similar to seasonal flu – but it could easily arise if restrictions are lifted while the virus spreads widely without it. full vaccine whole numbers, Chris Smith, public understanding of a scientist at Cambridge University, he told me.
In this case, the knowledge of Israel will be the medium. The country is on track to become one of the first to reach full coverage of the adult population by March or April, according to officials. About a fifth of the population have received at least one dose of the vaccine.
The rest of the world is keeping a close eye on how and when Israel chooses to lift restrictions. The country plans to issue “vaccine licenses” that remove carriers from certain social speed regulations, but the Ministry of Health said in a statement that he intends to keep a number of rules, such as wearing a mask, in place for some time. He also says he is considering easing rules with only people over 50, although that would depend on getting more data on whether vaccines prevent the spread of the virus, or simply protects against disease.
However, Yoav Yehezkelli, an expert in disaster management at Tel Aviv University, said that as the Israeli vaccination campaign progresses so fast towards full coverage, the vaccine nearly 1 percent of the number -his daily population, may not need discussion. whether it should open wide with only a fraction of the population. The difference between doing so would be and not just a few weeks, which could inspire Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is running for re-election in upcoming elections on March 23, erring on the side of caution regarding construction restrictions.
For rich countries that can get enough vaccines for all their numbers and have the capacity to administer, efforts should be focused on spreading up to a point when questions of reopening arise before full coverage is near. on irregular. Governments are urging them to risk reopening making the same mistakes as before – and now that the end of the pandemic is within a brisk pace, they would be unlikely to be forgiven.
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