Press Trust of IndiaJan 14, 2021 12:27:36 IST
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, may be similar to the cold sores coronaviruses that are currently circulating in humans if it becomes endemic and is severe. -some people exposed in childhood, according to a study. The modeling study, published Tuesday in the journal Science, based on research of the four common cold coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-1. The analysis of the immunological and epidemiological data for these viruses helped the researchers develop a model for predicting SARS-CoV-2 as endemic, when the virus develops. circulation in the general population. The researchers noted that four common cold-causing coronaviruses have been circulating in humans for a long time and that almost all are contagious at a young age.
Natural disease in childhood provides immunity that will protect people later in life against a serious disease, but that will not stop the recurrence from time to time, said Jennie Lavine, of Emory University in the USA , the first author of the study. The research suggests that endemic SARS-CoV-2 may be an early childhood disease, where the first infection is between 3 and 5 years of age, and that the disease itself would be moderate.
In the future, scientists feel that Covid will resemble the common cold virus. Image Credit: Kristine Wook / Unsplash
Older people may still be infected, but the diseases of their youth would provide protection from a serious infection, according to the researchers.
The speed of this movement depends on how quickly the virus spreads and what type of immune response the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines cause, they said. The model suggests that, if the vaccines stimulate short-term protection against relapse but reduce the severity of the disease, as is the case with other endemic coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 may being endemic earlier.
“This model assumes immunity to the function of SARS-CoV-2 similar to other human coronaviruses. We do not know for sure what it would be like if someone received one of the other coronaviruses for the first time as adult, rather than as a child, Lavine said.
The model predicts that the infectious mortality ratio for SARS-CoV-2 may fall lower than seasonal flu (0.1 percent), once an endemic stable state is reached.
“We are in a non-cartilage range, but a key message home from the study is that immunological indications suggest that death rates and the real need for widespread vaccination may disappear in the short term,” Ottar Bjornstad said. , professor and epidemiologist at Penn State.
He noted that the greatest effort should be made in recovering from this pandemic to endemicity.
A safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19 could save hundreds of thousands of lives in the first year or two of vaccine distribution, but continued immunization may not be as urgent as soon as it comes. SARS-CoV-2 to be endemic, the researchers said.
Targeted vaccination in vulnerable subtypes could still save lives, they said.
The researchers also noted that if major childhood diseases are mild at the onset of the endemic virus, extensive vaccination may not be necessary.
However, if primary infections become serious in children, as cases are more fatal but include coronaviruses like MERS, childhood vaccines should be followed, they said.