The release of the new Covid-19 version may be “specifically marked” in children, scientists have warned that school closures may be needed to keep the R number below one.
A quick study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found that the variant is 56 percent more mobile than other forms of the virus.
The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that even if another national lock – similar to the one in England in November – had been implemented, it would have been “unlikely” for the R reduced to less than if schools and universities were not also closed.
It comes amid growing pressure on the Government to close schools. Downing Street has said keeping schools open is a “national priority”, but ministers are now considering keeping schools closed for the whole of January, with teaching unions calling for delays.
Researchers said there was “little evidence that the increase may be particularly pronounced in children”.
They said the new variant will bring a wave of Covid-19 cases and deaths that end in Spring 2021 for London, the South East and East of England and the summer of 2021 for the rest of the country.
Coronavirus cases, hospital admissions and deaths in 2021 could be higher than those in 2020 if there is no “substantial” vaccine distribution, which would mean ramping up vaccines from the 200,000 in the world. weeks are being made this month to two million a week. .
The researchers explained that school closures in January would delay the summit, which would buy more time for the vaccine to begin.
They said the only way to reduce the burden on intensive care units (ICUs) across the country is to lock down nationally as well as close schools, along with two million people a week vaccinations.
This is “the only scenario we thought would reduce the minimum ICU load below the levels seen in the first wave”, they said.
Ministers have again rejected the closure of extended schools. Schools were due to return on January 4 but Gavin Williamson, Education Secretary, has a week of probation and return on January 11 for most students, with only GCSEs and A Levels returning in time with vulnerable children and their children emergency workers.
Separate figures from the Office for National Statistics show that secondary school children are the strongest age group for coronavirus.
Disease rates among those in Year Seven to Year 11 are among the highest in the population as a whole, official figures show.
Professor Neil Ferguson, a member of the New and Modern Respiratory Virus (Nervtag) Risk Advisory Group, said scientists hoped to learn much more over the next two weeks – while schools are closed – about as soon as the variable spreads among children.
Dr Ferguson said they were “working as fast as they can” to find out if it is safe to open schools in January and how best to make sure children are not fueled by the spread of a virus.