Recent polls have shown an optimistic picture for the Likud. After weeks of tension and uncertainty, the Likud party is ending the campaign with a clear strengthening trend at the expense of the two competing right-wing parties – right-wing led by Naftali Bennett and New Hope led by Gideon Saar.
The aggressive campaign that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his party have waged in recent days against Bennett has borne fruit. The “traditional seat feast” that Netanyahu holds regularly in Bennett’s electoral field has weakened her right, which according to the polls will reach a single-digit number of seats, which increases Netanyahu’s chances of forming a coalition under his leadership.
Bennett’s appearance on Channel 20, known for his affection for the Likud and its leader, and his signing of the commitment “not to sit in a government headed by Yair Lapid,” was intended to stop Netanyahu and the banquet of seats he leads. “We had to disrupt his gimmick, not play by the rules he was trying to dictate to us,” a senior right-winger told Maariv. “As in the ‘Neighbor Procedure’ event that Netanyahu did on Friday, when he tried to surprise Bennett and get home without warning and Bennett thwarted the plot, so this time too, Bennett signed the commitment to lead and not become a leader.”
For Netanyahu, the game he led in the last days of the campaign on the right field had to be delicate and sophisticated. On the one hand he wanted to strengthen at the expense of the right-wing parties, and on the other hand not to weaken them too much. A significant drop in the right and religious Zionism could lead to a situation in which 61 seats would not be found.
Another significant element that may affect the results and Netanyahu’s chances of obtaining 61 seats is the turnout. A high turnout could hurt the parties that are swinging at the threshold of the blocking percentage: Blue and White, Meretz, Ra’am and Religious Zionism. The entry of religious Zionism into the Knesset is important to critical for the Likud. , Because then about half of the seats of the parties that will not enter will go to the right-wing bloc, which will most likely give Netanyahu the 61 required seats.
In another scenario, Netanyahu does not reach 61 seats, with the ultra-Orthodox, the right and religious Zionism. This may happen if the turnout in the ultra-Orthodox sector is low and the two ultra-Orthodox parties receive fewer seats than the polls predict. If Shas and Torah Judaism together reach only 14 seats, Netanyahu’s chances will drop dramatically.
Another scenario could occur if Chairman Yesh Atid Yair Lapid continues on the line he is taking and declares that it is most important to replace Netanyahu and that he is giving up his goal of being prime minister in favor of Bennett. So that if the leaders of the Gush Shinui parties decide to recommend Bennett to the prime minister, the ball will move to the “just not Bibi” camp. In certain circumstances, which will include, among other things, the joint list’s commitment not to vote against Bennett’s government. “Led by Bennett. In another scenario, whose chances are low, Saar, Lapid and Bennett will share a term in rotation.
In the event that no candidate succeeds in forming a government and the system remains in such a state for 21 days, pressure will be exerted on Netanyahu and the leaders of the “Bloc of Change” to form a national unity government and prevent a fifth election. In this scenario, the party leaders will face a dilemma: break their promise not to sit with Netanyahu and prevent a run for another election or lead the country to another election, in which a decision is also unlikely to be reached.