Scenario rule: all the ways to get out of the ongoing political tangle

The ongoing political chaos brings with it, in the days after the election, three main possible scenarios: a government headed by Netanyahu, a government that will replace Netanyahu, and other elections.

Although everything is still open and even the numbers are not yet final, it can be carefully estimated that in light of the emerging results, the most likely scenario out of the three is that Netanyahu will eventually succeed in forming a coalition. Not because it will be an easy craft, the opposite is true, but simply because the other two scenarios are much more complicated.

PM Netanyahu: “We achieved a huge gap from the second largest party” // Photo: Yoni Rickner

Of the possibilities, it seems that the second camp’s option to form a coalition, led by Yair Lapid or anyone else, is the weakest. The camp, in which the leaders of the partner parties have pledged not to sit under Netanyahu as prime minister, is not homogeneous and will not provide stability to its partners.

While it will bring satisfaction to those who yearn for Netanyahu’s departure, the price the embroiderers of the move will have to pay will be too high for them to take the risk involved.

Yair Lapid: “At the moment, Netanyahu does not have 61 seats – and we have” // Photo: Moshe Ben Simhon

It is true that Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, Bnei Gantz, Merav Michaeli and Nitzan Horowitz can sign an agreement tomorrow morning, and immediately attach the joint list to them. But even then the numbers will not suffice. They will have to add Gideon Saar or Naftali Bennett to complete the move, and here the business is already starting to get complicated.

From a media point of view, in the studios and in the headlines, there is no doubt that they will try to encourage the two to jump into the left-wing water – the main thing is to throw Netanyahu, and even applaud them if they do, but a minute later they will lose their whole world. Saar and Bennett have never disengaged from the right, as have Elkin and others, and their feet are firmly planted in the camp, and chances are the time is not ripe for them to abandon it once and graze in foreign fields sown on the left.

Forget another rotation

There are, therefore, two more realistic options: further elections and a government headed by Netanyahu.

Three times Netanyahu failed to gain the support of 61 MKs, except for the third time he was forced to share power with Bnei Gantz and grant him half the kingdom. It did not survive and the fourth election was already waiting around the corner. Since no one will go to a rotation agreement with Netanyahu From now on, the easy bet will be that this time, too, all attempts will end in failure, and the members of the Central Election Commission should not be too scattered, because Otto will be called to the flag again.

Saar: “We will meet our commitment not to join Netanyahu” // Photo: Newsenders

But this time there is still a difference between the elections that have just ended and the three rounds that preceded them. In fact two differences: new hope and RAAM.

It is true that for Netanyahu this will be a roadblock. Both channels are difficult to cross and the chances of success are unknown. But Netanyahu knows that another election campaign can only end worse, so he will do everything – but everything – to make the most of both options. To bring in Saar contrary to his commitment, or some of his friends without him – a move that was tried in other parties and failed, or to lean on Mansour Abbas, despite the opposition of some of his right-wing campers like Bezalel Smutrich and Naftali Bennett. Despite the ordeal, this option seems to be the least pressing of the other two.

Abbas responds after passing the blocking percentage // Photo: Gil Eliyahu / Ginny

By the way, this should not have been the case. In a slightly more objective media climate, one in which he saw in his eyes the real good and desire of the citizens of Israel and not a pathological hatred for Netanyahu, the studios and headlines urged him to enter despite his promise and save the country from the ongoing impasse.

After all, unlike other times, Netanyahu clearly won this time with a double-digit gap between him and his rival. In this sense the people spoke in a clear and loud voice. The fact that in the reality established in the last two years a politician is allowed to break any promise, except one that benefits Netanyahu, is what forces the prime minister now to find crooked solutions to realize his victory, instead of following the voice of reason and probably the will of the people.

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