The view of supporters of President Donald Trump storming the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday set the American political landscape that has become partially destructive.
President Joe Biden did not choose words about the great men who were sieging the Capitol. “They were rioters, terrorists, domestic terrorists,” he said Thursday.
Most countries have largely overcome this false flame over the past four years by avoiding the appearance of favoring one side of political division. the USA over another side.
Not Saudi Arabia.
The kingdom and its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), have maintained a close relationship with the Trump administration.
Throughout his presidency, Trump has shown almost unconscious support for Riyadh, about the complaints of some members of Congress who have been less willing to turn a blind eye to Saudi Arabia’s human rights agenda.
MBS is expected to be very cummy with Trump’s son-in-law and White House chief adviser Jared Kushner.
Riyadh was particularly pleased with Trump’s decision in 2018 to unilaterally withdraw the U.S. from Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers and the issuance of several sanctions to slow down Iran’s economy.
And when U.S. coal miners threatened to survive the crash of last year’s crude price crash, Saudi Arabia – at Trump’s urging – agreed to call a sleep call in the oil price war it started. .
But this week, as Trump prepares to leave the Oval Office, Riyadh seized the moment to remove at least one foreign policy headache for the incoming Democratic administration. -in by taking a big step towards healing with Qatar.
The end of the campaign with Qatar is not a key issue for Congress or the Biden administration. But it removes one thing from the list of problems that the incoming administration with Saudi Arabia would face, ”said Gregory Gause, professor of international relations at the School of Management and Public Service. Bush at Texas A&M University, to Al Jazeera.
You are at the first time when the Saudi-American relationship has been entrenched in partisan politics.
Narrow window for reset
US-Saudi ties are not built on shared values but mutual security and business interests.
For three-quarters of a century, that has been enough to persuade both U.S. Democratic and Republican administrations to maintain a convenience marriage, and Riyadh to play ball with whoever resides. at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
But the perceived agnosticism towards major U.S. political parties that has traditionally exposed Riyadh’s connection to Washington was spreading on Trump’s watch.
“You’re at the first time when the Saudi-American relationship has been tied in partisan politics,” Gause said. “A large number of Democratic politicians in Congress and a Democratic foreign policy elite see Saudi Arabia as not only a troubled partner, but one that has chosen to accept the Republican Party.”
Saudi Arabia has few easy options for establishing its relationship with an incoming Democratic administration on a more friendly basis.
He would help advance his record on women’s rights. But Riyadh showed no inclination to do so when reports emerged at the end of last month that women’s rights activist Loujain al-Hathloul was sentenced to nearly six years in prison by nearly six years in prison. Saudi terrorist court.
At the very beginning. We’re like, okay, how are they going to pull out of this?
The war in Yemen would end a major diplomatic effort. So would follow the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other MENA countries in normalizing relations with Israel.
Capturing relations with Qatar, by contrast, is a low-hanging fruit.
For one, Qatar’s three-and-a-half-year air, land and sea blockade of Doha failed to bend to the will of Riyadh and its partners – the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt – including requests that close Qatar down Al Jazeera Media Network (full release: I am employed by Al Jazeera Media Network).
The embargo was undoubtedly caused economic pain on Doha. That’s what sanctions do. But with one of the highest per capita incomes in the world, Qatar has deep pockets to deliver an economic attack.
That was not the only weakness of a poorly designed policy. The blocking countries failed to secure full international support for what they did, leaving Doha with the option to find new trading partners and develop new supply chains. He did.
Riyadh and its partners also made the critical mistake of exaggerating Qatar’s strategic value to the US.
“Qatar has the largest plane in America in the Middle East, and Qatar is probably the best lobbyist in America on its side, which is the Pentagon,” Gause said.
F-22 Air Force Raptor out of Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar [File: Staff Sgt. Chris Drzazgowski/US Air Force via AP]
“Both the Emirates and the Saudis had an outside belief and a false belief in the ability of the Trump administration to force the Qataris to come to terms, and I think that is their fundamental mistake,” he said. e.
Another critical planning scandal: the countries that started it lacked an obvious off-ramp.
“It’s very clear they didn’t think this thing through,” Jim Krane, an energy member at Rice University’s Baker Institute, told Al Jazeera. “At the very beginning. We’re like, okay, how are they going to pull out of here? “
A change of guard in Washington, however, is an opportunity for Saudi Arabia and its failed policy partners to overthrow it. But the window is narrow.
“Is it really awful for Saudi Arabia and the other three players here, the other promoters, if you have to wait, to take this opportunity and wait another four or eight years for the stars align with it to at least consider rapprochement? asked Krane.
Walking back on the back will not leave Riyadh with a clean slate in Washington. MBS has made many mistakes on its march to power. Some, like the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, can never be eradicated. But repairing fences with Qatar is one way to earn points with the incoming Biden administration and start to take its kingdom out of the false quagmire of U.S. partisan politics.